some updates

OK, so a lot happened on Wednesday night, clearing up the playoff situation. Locally, Southington and New Britain are out, no chance of making the playoffs. Conversely, Rocky Hill is in. What was a 99% chance before is now 100%.
Newington should know now that a win against Wethersfield clinches their playoff berth as well. There is no grey area there. But there is no chance of the Indians getting a home game.
As for Rocky Hill, the Terriers can get a home game in a few ways, possibly even the top seed although that would be very unlikely. To get any home game Rocky Hill will need wins from five of the six teams it beat that still have games. In fact, it's a specific five teams for reasons that are complicated but I'll try to explain.
Rocky Hill needs: Middletown over Xavier, Stonington over Westerly (RI), Prince Tech over Capital Prep, Enfield over Fermi, and RHAM over Bacon Academy. I'd actually give them the edge in four of those. Prince, Stonington and Enfield all seem like solid bets to me. RHAM/Bacon sounds like a complete tossup. And Middletown would be a big upset win.
Here's the interesting part. There is another game, Plainville at NW Catholic, that on paper would seem to help Rocky Hill. The problem is, if Plainville wins that, or rather Northwest loses it, without all the others happening as well, then Rocky Hill would not win the tiebreaker against Seymour and would end up at best in a tie. The win for Northwest actually helps Rocky Hill in the tiebreaker.
Rocky Hill would still also need Ansonia to beat Naugatuck, which seems like a pretty good bet. If Naugy won, RH would need all six of its games to come through. Those are the only ways they can pass Seymour.
As for passing New London, they would first of all need the Whalers to lose to NFA. Then they would need to get more bonus points than them. New London is guaranteed one win from the Plainfield-Griswold matchup having beaten both. They also will be looking to get Waterford over East Lyme, Fitch over Ledyard, Windham over E.O. Smith, and the kicker, Bacon Academy over RHAM. Windham is a near lock against E.O., but Fitch is very unlikely to beat Ledyard. Waterford is probably a slight favorite to beat East Lyme. Which means if things go as expected, New London would have three wins to match the three I think Rocky Hill gets easily. If New London in fact loses, the RHAM-Bacon game could determine which team, New London or Rocky Hill, finishes ahead of the other, and possibly who gets home field in a matchup between them. But a New London win makes this all a moot point.

There were some big upsets tonight. I was shocked to see Montville lose, and a little surprised by Hyde's win over North Branford, which seems to have knocked Northwest Catholic out of the playoff race. Masuk made easy work of Newtown and while a Masuk win isn't surprising, the manner in which they did it makes them look like a clear Class L favorite, and maybe the clearest favorite in any division.


A THANKSGIVING NOTE:
As I wrote in my blog last year, Thanksgiving is a day on which I try to make phone calls to all the people who have been important in my life in a positive way over the past 12 months. For whatever reason, Thanksgiving seems the best time to do this, not New Year's Day, or Christmas or any other holiday.
As always, I have made it through the year on the strength of my friends and family, and those truly close to me continue to show themselves more and more.
I urge all of you to really consider where you might be without the important people in your life, and also where they might be without you. There's no shame in admitting we're all in this together, and that nobody can go it alone.
Happy Thanksgiving, everybody! Enjoy the turkey, the football and the smiles.
And keep your phone on in case I call you.