the most wonderful time of the year

To say I love baseball might not express it enough. It's not even that I am so in love with the sport itself as the things it represents. Baseball is not only the game of our childhood (who doesn't remember having a catch in the back yard, or heading down to the field for a game on a warm spring or summer night?), but also the game of warm weather. It is the one major team sport that is played almost entirely during the summer in America. And I am definitely a warm weather kind of person.
So with the start of baseball season comes a promise that the mercury will soon be rising, and nothing makes me happier.
Baseball also has the appeal of being played almost every day. While we wait through days off during football and basketball seasons, our favorite baseball teams play at least six days a week. That means every day there is a game to look forward to each night. Enough said.
So, let me get into some of my thoughts on the MLB season. (As an aside, I am excited about getting to see some high school baseball and softball games too, but that's for another post.) First off, here's how I see each division going down, with a bit on each team. I'll also give estimated win totals, but I must admit I'm making them up on the spot, so don't do the math. It won't add up.

American League East
Boston (98 wins): The Red Sox are clearly the best team in baseball, and even with questions surrounding several pitchers (Beckett, Schilling, and the young guys), I can't see them not winning the division and finishing with the best record.
New York (93 wins): The Yanks lineup is still potent, maybe better than the Sox, but their pitching isn't close. And who knows whether Pettitte or Mussina have anything left. I think Joba should be starting, but I thought the same about Papelbon. Better to leave those decisions to guys who know better.
Tampa Bay (84 wins): Seriously. Don't sleep on the Rays. Kazmir and Shields are very good, the young hitters are better than you realize. But they're still not a contender.
Toronto (82 wins): I am not sold on this team... at all. It's hard to expect A.J. Burnett to be healthy for any length of time, and some people are starting to question Roy Halladay's stuff.
After them, what is the character of this team? A pretty solid lineup, assuming Alex Rios continues to get better. I don't know. I don't see it.
Baltimore (66 wins): Honestly, I could see them winning even less than that. This team lost Eric Bedard and even with a pair of young outfielders in Markakis and Jones (I think that's his name) they don't have anything to win. On top of that, the AL East has finally become the best division in baseball. Watch Peter Angelos squirm this year as Washington actually finishes with more wins.
AL Central
Cleveland (95 wins): Some still question this team. Nobody's really talking about them. But Sabathia is an ace, and might not be the best pitcher on his own team. Don't count Carmona out this year. I see improvement for Sizemore, Hafner had a very down year last year, and Victor Martinez may be the most unappreciated player in the game.
Detroit (94 wins): Yes, the lineup is the best in baseball. It's unfathomable how many runs they could score. 1100 is not out of the question.
But, the pitching staff is still holey. Verlander's great, but after him, who's a definite. Don't expect anything from Dontrelle. If you really look at his stats he had one-and-a-half good seasons. But people fell in love with his style and charisma too much to recognize he hasn't been that good since. They need their riflemen in the bullpen to get healthy.
Chicago (87 wins): I'm not sure why, I just think this will be a solid year for them. I can't even say why. Ozzie might be crazy, or he might be brilliant. Or both. We'll see.
Minnesota (75 wins): Don't count on Liriano after the injury. Oh, he has great stuff, but will he last for a full season. And will it matter. The lineup, other than two really good hitters, is pretty average, and even Mauer won't give you any power. The Twins are waiting for their new stadium to open, and I bet they'll try to make a splash in free agency leading up to that.
Kansas City (68 wins): Sure, this team has started throwing some money around, but has it improved the team. Count me in the 'no' category.
AL West
LA of Anaheim (92 wins): Any lineup with Vlad, and team with Mike Scioscia, has a leg up. Scioscia is a great manager at doing a lot with average talent. Vlad seems to be forgotten, but still put up monster numbers a year ago (.324, 27, 125).
Seattle (90 wins): I love the Bedard acquisition, but I'm still not sure this team has enough. King Felix has to stay healthy and avoid the lapses that have hurt him. If he becomes a true ace, this team will pass the Angels.
Texas (77 wins): I don't really know much about this team. But the AL should do very well in interleague, so I can't see them too far below .500.
Oakland (72 wins): The A's have looked 'OK' so far in their two games, but if Rich Harden isn't healthy, this team is very, very bad. They're bad even with him, and I think he's a top ten pitcher if he's healthy. But when you're saying, 'Well, Jack Cust is an underrated player', you have problems.

NL East
New York (94 wins): There's a lot of questions here. After Santana, the rotation is still very old, or very young. I like Maine, but Hernandez can't keep going and Pedro is an injury risk.
Then offensively, is Delgado done? Does Beltran have a star season or an above-average one? How about David Wright. When does he start hitting for more power. But, this lineup still has a lot of guys who scare you.
Philadelphia (91 wins): I am the biggest Cole Hamels fan on the planet, outside of Philly. And the three stars in the lineup are enough to make this a good offensive team. Also, look for Shane Victorino if healthy and playing every day to have a great year.
Atlanta (86 wins): Who knew Chipper Jones still had these numbers: .337, 29, 102? Not me. But I bet Braves fans like that.
Washington (82 wins): There is a mystical quality to opening a new park. And this team overachieved so much last year, I have to believe in their managing enough to think playing in front of fans could get them over 80 wins.
Florida (64 wins): I know about Ramirez and Uggla and the young guys. But seriously, who's going to pitch? I had to look this up, but apparently the answer is Mark Hendrickson, Scott Olsen, Andrew Miller, Rick VandenHurk, Ricky Nolasco. Eek.
NL Central
Chicago (89 wins): No closer (assuming Kerry Wood is still Kerry Wood), a shaky bottom of the rotation if Jason Marquis is starting, but a solid to very good lineup. I look for Derek Lee to be great, Soriano to be great and the others to all contribute. Please God, don't let the Cubs win two years in a row.
St. Louis (87 wins): I know you will call me a homer, or just plain crazy. I know that right now the pitching depth chart looks bad. And I know that Pujols could literally watch his elbow snap. But I am optimistic as a fan.
Adam Wainwright is a legitimate ace pitcher now (more on that later), and any lineup with Pujols is going to be dangerous. Of course a lot needs to go right, and if it doesn't it could be bad. But the 78 wins the Cards got last year were with just about everything going wrong that possibly could, and they got better as the year went on.
Kip Wells is gone, which has to be good for at least five more wins, and should Mulder and Carpenter come back healthy and effective, that's as good a three-man rotation as any in the game. I just hope we're not cursed. That '06 World Series probably pissed off the baseball gods something fierce when they came out of their drunken stupor.
Milwaukee (84 wins): I'm not big on this team either. And bad luck seems to be following them. Gallardo and Capuano hurt already, the latter out for the year. Sheets can usually be counted on to follow, and if Jeff Suppan has to be your ace, you're in trouble, as solid a starter as he is.
Is it just me, or are some people overprojecting Ryan Braun this year the way they did Sizemore last year? He should be great some time soon, but there's no guarantee it's this year. And Fielder is no guarantee yet either. But the upside for this team could be big, if things go right.
Cincinnati (78 wins): The best thing going for Cincinnati, for the first time in a long time, might be the top of its rotation. Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo should put up very good numbers in the NL. The lineup still strikes out too much, though, and the rest of the rotation doesn't overwhelm me.
Houston (73 wins): I expect a huge dropoff for this team. Age is starting to settle in, and I think management is slipping. Roy Oswalt is awesome, and Berkman has been nothing but great for a bunch of years now. But the team banked too much on Tejada, who has very little of his old power left, and is destined to fall off quickly.
Pittsburgh (70 wins): At least they still have the best park in baseball. The joke about the park itself refusing to open until the team is good is getting really old.
As usual the Pirates have a bunch of young guys with some talent who will underachiever individually and even more collectively. Matt Capps is the next guy to eventually be lost to another team.
NL West
Arizona (95 wins): Forget the Mets, I think this is the best team in the NL. I think they were last year, too. But one bad playoff series can kill that.
Dan Haren gives them a second ace, with Brandon Webb being arguably the best pitcher in the NL. If the Unit can do anything the rotation could be scary good.
Plus there are future stars all over the lineup, even though most of them aren't there yet. The D-Backs look like they should be the NL team that forces others to spend and catch up in the next few years, and finally bring back the balance between the leagues.
Los Angeles (90 wins): Torre is not my favorite manager, nor do I think he's the best. But he brings a calm that has been sorely missing for this franchise for years. And he's got a very solid team on both sides of the ball. Nothing spectacular, but very good.
Or, Brad Penny could get hurt as usual, and the team could fall apart, as usual.
Colorado (86 wins): I expect a dropoff here. The rotation is really not that good, even though they finally have guys whose home/road splits aren't dramatic. Todd Helton might have another big dropoff year, and Matt Holliday can't duplicate last year. Can he?
Tulowitzki is the player to build around.
San Diego (85 wins): This team should be great, but gets so little offense and seems poorly designed to deal with its park. Peavy and Young are a dynamic 1/2, so if they do overachieve and get to the playoffs, they are dangerous. But why, oh why, did they trade for Jim Edmonds, even if he was dirt cheap? Edmonds can still field with the best, but his offense is actually a detriment to the team, and he might not even be healthy, creating instability in both areas.
San Francisco (68 teams): No team will be out of the playoff race sooner than San Francisco with the balanced teams ahead of them. They won't finish close to fourth. And I don't want to hear how good Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are. The offense is simply awful, and old, which means it should only get worse.

So, that's that. The reason I am doing this early (even if the season technically started) is that I am off in the morning to St. Louis, to fulfill a "religious" duty. I will be attending opening day with a good friend of mine, and it should be an experience to remember. It's tough being a diehard fan of a team that I so rarely get to see on TV, let alone in person. I managed to see the old Busch Stadium in September the last year it was open, and this will be my first visit to the new one, which was already underway at that time.
There's something about being able to spend time around a large number of fans in the same place. There's a comaraderie to it that I don't get to experience much. Only UConn basketball gives me that on a regular basis, and I regret that. But, I will stay loyal to the teams I chose to support as a young kid.
I get a chance to see Wainwright in his first opening day start. I expect there will be several more down the line, and it gives us a good chance to start the season off with a win against the defending NL champs. If not, I'll be a bit depressed.
Anyways, look for me in the left field upper deck on Monday.