MLB season preview

OK. Spring is here. That means I will get out of the office and back into the field after a long winter which forced me to miss a lot of the action on the basketball court.
But, before we get to local high school stuff, I want to share my thoughts on the MLB season, and make my predictions for each team.
Now, as I did last year, I will make predictions on records for all the teams, but I will be doing this totally off the top of my head. The numbers will not add up to a possible outcome. But last season, I was relatively close on most teams, and actually quite proud of myself.
I am more excited than ever for baseball season. I think the birth of mlb.tv on the mlb.com Web site has allowed me to watch more baseball than ever, and I feel really well informed on the sport as a whole. So, with that in mind, expect my picks to be terrible. But here they are.

American League East
1. New York (95-67)- I've gone back and forth on this, and honestly, I think the top three teams in baseball are in this division. But one won't make the playoffs and another will need to win the wild card to get there. So, this is key.
The Yanks lineup is flawed, with Jeter getting old, Matsui not nearly what he used to be and Posada and Damon both reaching their final years. But, how can you beat the rotation with Sabathia, Burnett, Chamberlain, and Pettitte?
Well, the answer may be injuries, but until that happens, this is the team to beat if you ask me. They need A-Rod back desperately, but should be good when that happens. If they slip at all, they'll be caught.
2- Tie- Boston/Tampa Bay (94-68)- It's so close, let's just get a one-day playoff for the wild card. That would be fun.
The Sox's rotation looks stronger than expected. Penny is pitching well, and is healthy so far. Beckett, Daisuke and Lester are all very strong (again, if healthy. That seems to be a trend). Somebody will fill the last spot and at worst, Wakefield isn't a bad option.
The lineup post-Manny is still quite strong, though not as intimidating. Drew needs to get healthy, and I think Pedroia will come back just a bit from his MVP season. But I think Papi will pick up the slack.
As for the Rays, I can't figure out why David Price is starting the year in the minors, and if he weren't I'd probably have picked them ahead of New York. Bad move by the team if you ask me, because one or two games in the regular season could mean they don't get to October, so resting him could be a moot point.
But, this team still has a very strong rotation and bullpen from last year, Carl Crawford is poised for a big bounce-back year, and the rest of the team is young and improving. What's not to like?
4. Baltimore (75-87)- The rest of this division will suffer the consequences. The Orioles have some nice young pieces though, such as Adam Jones in center field. He's going to be a stud. The pitching staff has decent promise too, so I pick them barely ahead of the Jays.
5. Toronto (72-90)- I don't know why I'm quite so down on this team, but after Roy Halladay, I don't like much of what they have. Vernon Wells is getting old. Alex Rios is good, and Scott Rolen should do better than last year if he's healthier for once. But not much else.
I will be watching New Britain native Jesse Carlson closely as a reliever. His father is a great person and he's done well in his time so far.
American League Central
1. Minnesota (89-73)- Love the former Rock Cats in the rotation. And in a division with no great teams, consistency wins out. Nobody's staff is as balanced as the Twins, even if Scott Baker misses a bit of time at the start. But Denard Span needs to do better than he did in the spring and Mauer must get back healthy before too long. That could be a downfall.
2. Cleveland (85-77)- I could get laughed at for this, but I think this is a sleeper team. Here's why.
There's a lot of potential for surprise performances from the pitching staff. Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona need to perform up to expectations. Jake Westbrook needs to return from Tommy John surgery healthy and before July. But there's hope behind that. I expect big things from Carl Pavano, getting out of New York, and Anthony Reyes, who has as much talent as anybody when he screws his head on correctly.
Plus, I like Victor Martinez to bounce back, Sizemore to improve and others to do well. I like this team. I could eat these words in September.
3. Chicago (82-78)- An up and down club headed for another "down" year. Good pieces. Alexei Ramirez is a rising star. But I expect dropoffs from Carlos Quentin, Jermaine Dye and the rotation.
4. Kansas City (78-82)- Much improved, but don't buy the hype that this team could contend in this division. The young pitching staff is solid, but the offense has no big bats to get the job done. Simply put, who's driving in the runs? Alex Gordon's not that good yet, and Coco Crisp is no savior.
5. Detroit (72-90)- Bad times ahead for the Motor City. This pitching staff, injured and declining in a hurry, is bad. The offense is weaker without Sheff and Pudge. Granderson, Magglio and Cabrera can't score enough to overcome the deficiencies. Horrible year.
American League West
1. Anaheim of LA in the Valley [or something like that] (90-72)- Smoke and mirrors, and good coaching, are enough to win this division. This isn't nearly as good a team as it used to be, and there are some early pitching questions. But in the end, who's beating them. Nobody else is very good. And Scioscia is one of the best in the game at getting the most out of a roster.
2. Oakland (84-78)- Still don't think this team is very good. This might even be a bit high for them. Holliday's numbers should plummet in the Coliseum. The pitching staff is mediocre. The rest of the lineup strikes out too much. But look for the return of Giambi, back to folk legend status by the Bay. He was never comfortable in New York.
3. Seattle (83-79)- The Mariners weren't a good team last year, but they weren't as bad as their record. Or at least shouldn't have been. Look for Bedard to do better this year, and the team to get a serious emotional boost from that Griffey guy. Some guys are just meant to be in certain cities. Junior never should have left. He belongs to Seattle.
4. Texas (80-82)- Teams still getting better, but there still isn't enough pitching to go with stud hitters like Kinsler and Hamilton.

National League East
1. New York (91-71)- I know the rotation depth is weak. I know you're counting a lot on John Maine and Oliver Perez to do well. But I believe in both of those guys and the Mets have found success at the front of games with mediocre talent in recent years. It's been the back end that's caused problems. Now they've got that settled with two top level guys in Putz and K-Rod.
Now, the runs that this lineup scores will hold up, and with Sheff added yesterday, the lineup looks even a bit stronger.
2. Philadelphia (89-73)- Here's where I see pitching problems. Hamels is hurt. Moyer is a human wonder, but can't do everything. Myers is never happy. What else is there. I saw Happ in person last year. He's not that good.
Great bullpen, great offense (even better with Utley back at full strength). But pitching will be the downfall for the champs.
3. Florida (86-76)- This is another sleeper team. Most in the division consider the Marlins rotation to be the best of the bunch, though almost completely unknown. Chris Volstad is the next guy to get recognized, the way Hamels has over the past three years. Hanley Ramirez is a star.
But overall, not enough depth in the lineup.
4. Atlanta (83-79)- This team could also sneak into the playoffs, if Francouer bounces back, Chipper stays healthy and other things go right. The rotation will have trouble staying healthy, even if it is good when the guys take the mound. So that will keep them back just a bit.
5. Washington (71-91)- You know, I think this team is much improved talent-wise. But the record won't get much of a boost playing four legitimately good teams in the division. Love Elijah Dukes. Love Dunn to get the fans excited. Don't expect to be in the race.

National League Central
1. Chicago (96-66)- Best team in the NL is back. They choked in the playoffs, but they're built for regular season greatness. Zambrano, Harden, Dempster (and Peavy?). That's tough to beat. The lineup is balanced and better with Milton Bradley. Let's see how they do when they get to the playoffs this time.
Only minor question for me is will Gregg and Marmol be as strong as Wood was last year. That could effect things.
2. St. Louis (93-69)- Homer pick. But seriously, I love my team this year.
STAT TIME!
Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright combined for 23 starts last year, going 11-4 (Carp was 0-1 and never got past the fifth inning). That team won 86 games.
Now those two are back healthy and should start, at a very conservative guess, 40 games at least. Thats good for five more wins. Add in an offensive upgrade at short, a plethora of outfield talent and a bullpen that will now be an asset as opposed to a detriment. Josh Kinney will be a great reliever, Ryan Franklin will be at home in the setup role and Jason Motte will close games out with pure power. Mark it down. This team makes the playoffs barring injuries.
3. Cincinnati (86-76)- Everybody's favorite to be this year's Rays looks good on paper. Volquez, Cueto, Harang, Arroyo and Owings in the rotation: good stuff. But...
After Joey Votto (who I love), Jay Bruce (who I like) and Brandon Phillips (who everybody should know more about) the offense is full of unproductive outs and little power. This offense can't score enough to take pressure off the young arms. That's a recipe for disaster.
4. Milwaukee (81-81)- Braun is awesome, and I hate him for that. Fielder is dangerous. Other guys can hit for power, though not as much for average.
But the team's best pitcher might be Jeff Suppan, three of the other starters are constantly hurt, and Braden Looper is a solid pitcher. That's not a lot of depth, and no ace. Remember, before CC got there last year, this team was not headed to the playoffs. He won't save them this year, and Sheets is gone, too.
5. Houston (74-88)- This is a team where the sum of the parts is greater than the whole. Somehow these guys won't blend. Good pitching performances will go wasted. Good offensive days will be ruined by poor starts. And Carlos Lee is so bad in left field it's worth about 20 runs over the course of the season to opponents. I like what they did adding Pudge, and Berkman's still the quietest great player in the game. But this team is destined to hit the skids.
6. Pittsburgh (66-96)- In contention to be the worst team in the league, if only San Diego weren't so bad it would be a landslide. They have a rotation of guys who could never live up to potential. Maholm, their best chance to break that chance, is pitching poorly in spring.
The offense is hideous and the defense even worse. Beautiful park. Ugly team.

National League West
1. Los Angeles (88-74)- I don't love any of these teams, and I've flip-flopped on this several times (like the AL East). But Manny is a difference maker and makes that offense the best in the division (not that that says much).
I don't like the pitching staff. There's too much riding on young guys, and guys who may have had career years last year. We'll see. This team still has the most upside in the division.
2. San Francisco (86-76)- Combine the Giants and Dodgers and you'd have a great team. Cause Lincecum, Cain and Randy Johnson is a fearsome top three in the rotation. But who will score the runs. The offense is better, but still bad. Nonetheless, I think this team fits its park very well and will post a very good home record.
3. Arizona (85-77)- This could change if a lot of the young hitters step up. Webb and Haren are still great, but the rest of the rotation isn't as good as before. But if Stephen Drew and whichever Upton is on this team reach their potential, that could go a long way. Plus I expect good things from Felipe Lopez at second, and Eric Byrnes could see a big bounceback year, if he ever gets to play.
4. Colorado (74-88)- Who's still on this team from the 07 World Series? Spillborghs. Tulowitzki. Ummmm???
Alright, Todd Helton's still there, but far too much of the team salary is tied up in an aging hitter with bad home and road splits. Pitching staff is suspect. Offense has noticeably less pop without Holliday.
5. San Diego (65-97)- Bad, bad, bad, bad, bad. Look out 62 Mets. This team might challenge you, although that has proven harder and harder to do. Even the awful teams get some wins these days, and Jake Peavy's still a Padre for at least a couple months. Chris Young could bounce back and be a very good pitcher. And Brian Giles is... well, he's still there for what it's worth. (Adrian Gonzalez is one good offensive player this team has. He's about it.)
The offense is god awful. It's a shame that the owners' personal issues (divorce) are forcing the fans and team to suffer. Hang in there Pads fans.

Enjoy the season, fans. I know I will.
And stay classy, San Diego. It's going to be a loooooooong season.

World Series preview

I don't care what anybody says. This is the matchup I want.
Who wants the Red Sox again, other than Sox fans? We've seen them. Just last year we saw them. Four years ago we saw them end the curse. It's over. The likability of the Red Sox is forever gone, and I'm not one of those people who needs a villain to make a sport interesting (not that it doesn't help sometimes).
No. I want a hero. I want something I can get caught up in even if it's not my own team. I need these Rays.
I remember 1991, when I was ten years old and learning about a new group of contenders known as the Braves. It's hard to remember that in the 1980s the Braves were the laughing-stock of MLB. Dale Murphy was about the only thing that made the team relevant, an eternally overlooked player (seriously, look up his career numbers), and for good reason. His team was terrible.
And then they became the Braves. They made it to 14 straight postseasons. They won the World Series once and got there five times.
But back in 1991 we were getting our first glimpse of them, and I can remember rooting hard for Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz and the wonder kid named Steve Avery. David Justice was a star on that team. Ron Gant breathed life back into his own middling career. It was special to see the team attempt to go from worst to first, and they nearly did it before the Twins took the Series.
So, now, 17 years later we have the Rays, another team attempting to do the same thing. No major American team has ever had the worst record in its sport one year and gone on to win its championship the next year. It's that hard to do.
And I'll be rooting for the Rays with almost everything I have.
On the other side we have the Phillies, a very talented group of players trying to end what its city feels is an overlooked history of woe. Theres some truth to that. The Phils have only one title in their 100-plus year history, which is fewer than even the Cubs. And the city hasn't won a title in any sport since 1983 (76ers).
Truth is, I just can't root for a Philadelphia team. Not if there's an alternative. Maybe it's just me, but my experience in Philly has always made me think of the fans in that city as simply miserable. They are mean on an equal-opportunity level: they boo their own team just as much as the opponents, and both loudly. They abuse fans of the visiting team. They are simply mean.
If New York fans are always criticized for their air of self-importance, they have never been as outright nasty as Philly fans can be.
I like some of these Philly players. There may not be a more important player to his team than Chase Utley. I truly enjoy watching Cole Hamels pitch. And Ryan Howard seems like a good guy and is a fun player.
But I just cannot root for this team. For me, they offer that villain.
So bring on the series.
For a good article about the series read this, by the ever-entertaining Jayson Stark.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2008/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3653757

OK, so here's my prediction and on-field thoughts.
As I said about the NLCS, the best pitcher in the series is on the Phillies. Hamels is just that good, if you haven't noticed by now. But guys like Kazmir and Shields aren't far behind for Tampa, and the Rays have far more pitching depth. Sonnanstine and Garza are legit threats to shut a team down as well, and despite the blowup in Game 5, the bullpen is very deep and very effective.
In fact, I love that the group bounced back to essentially win Game 7. I'm sure many people thought they would not recover after having their first major gaffe of the year come in a potential series-clinching game, and in overwhelming fashion. That says a ton about the makeup of the team and pitching staff in particular.
Offensively, there's a ton of young star power here. Longoria, Upton, Crawford, Pena for the Rays. Rollins, Utley, Howard, Burrell for the Phillies. Role players like Shane Victorino and Akinora Iwamura who absolutely are the glue that make championship teams.
I can't decide which offense I think is better.
But here's the kicker. Tampa's still got that goofy stadium. They had an exceptional home record this year, and with good cause. Even teams used to playing there don't adapt enough all the time. The roof can screw things up in countless ways. The noise can get bad. Even the lighting can have an effect on things, not to mention playing on an artificial surface, even field turf as opposed to old-fashioned Astroturf.
Along with the pitching staff, I expect this to give Tampa an edge. And here's the other thing. Philly needs to get wins when Hamels is on the mound. If Tampa can steal a game against him at the Trop, this series could be over quicker than expected.
So while I think certain parts of this series are pretty balanced, overall I don't think there's much question that Tampa's a stronger team top to bottom. If the Rays win the first two games, and can come out firing in Game 3 in Philly, this could be over in four.
Or, if Hamels can get his team a win early on, and the Phils can go back home even, they could force the series back to Tampa.
But I don't see that happening. I see Tampa fever sweeping the nation.
And I see the Rays winning this, their first World Series title, in five games.
What a story that would make.

MLB playoff predictions (take 2)

Sometimes I feel happy getting things half right. The MLB playoffs are definitely one of those times.
After all, I was exactly right about the Rays and Phillies... in four games! That never happens. I was right that the Red Sox-Angels series would be tight, and don't be fooled that it didn't go five games. The Angels had a lead in Game 1 and were right in it in Game 4. That easily could have gone the other way, and sports editor Matt Straub almost had three cardiac arrests during the week.
And then there were the Cubs.
OK, I won't avoid talking about it. I was wrong about the Cubs, well, sort of. I said that at some point something would stop them from winning, as always. I just had no idea it would be so early on. I never would have predicted four errors in one game, all from the infield. I never thought their entire stacked lineup would fall asleep. I never thought Huroki Kuroda and Chad Billingsley would prove to be aces when it mattered most. So, I was wrong about that.
Time to regroup and go at this again. And I love both of these LCS matchups. This should be exciting baseball.
ALCS, Red Sox at Rays
The sad thing is, if the Sox win this, then the Rays year, and accomplishments, will go the way of many before them. Who remembers the 2001 Mariners? They went 116-46 in the regular season, but lost the ALCS to the Yankees. And it was in New York, not Seattle, that the President threw out the opening pitch. Maybe that was just fate. But those Mariners, one of the best teams ever, are largely forgotten, and it's only seven years later.
How about the 1995 Indians? Try 100-44 in a strike-shortened regular season. But they lost to the Braves in the World Series (ironic that the one Braves team that won in the end was the one that was a huge underdog). So, your average fan doesn't remember just how good that Indians team was.
The point is, the Rays won the AL East by playing great all year long and holding off the Sox in the last two weeks of the year. But if they lose this series, it won't matter. In the end, people will remember the Red Sox as the better team (whether they were or not) and the Rays will be something for the history books only, not baseball lore.
And it could easily happen. These teams both have three VERY reliable starting pitchers, and a fourth that isn't bad in a pinch. I give the Rays the edge in that middle game, but other than that, how can you pick against any of the six guys going?
How about offense? The Red Sox sure look a lot like they did this time last year, balanced and dangerous. Who wants to pitch to Pedroia, Youkilis, or that Ortiz guy? Not to mention Jason Bay is proving he's pretty good, J.D. Drew is always dangerous and you can expect somebody else to step up eventually.
As for the Rays, they just looked very good against the White Sox, and Carlos Pena (the pride of Northeastern University) didn't hit a single homer in the series. He did bat .500 in three games.
If B.J. Upton heats up, he's a series changer. Same goes for Longoria, and Pena. That's a VERY good lineup.
There's little question that these are the two best remaining teams, and many people believe whoever wins this is taking home the World Series. That will have to wait. For now, it's going to come down to those late-game situations, that the Red Sox have been so good at during their postseason success years.
But the Rays have the much deeper bullpen, aside from the Sox advantage in postseason experience the only big edge either team has anywhere. I think that's critical, and I'm not the biggest believer in the importance of a strong pen. Strong pens don't win games. But at this point in the year, when every game is so important, they keep you from blowing one.
I hope this goes seven games. I hope they're all close. I hope Red Sox fans have 1,000 heart attacks over the next week.
And in the end, I hope their hearts are broken, if only so that the Rays get to shine. This team deserves it, and I hate seeing the kind of things that happened in 2001 and 1995 (except when it comes to last year's Patriots).
I may be picking with my heart, but I am picking Tampa in seven games.
NLCS, Dodgers at Phillies
This is weird, because entering the playoffs, I thought the Cubs were so clearly the best team in the NL that I hadn't quite considered the possibility the Dodgers would be in this series. Of course, I knew the Dodgers COULD win that series, I just never thought about what it would set up afterwards, how they would shape up for a seven-game series.
Truth be told, they shape up pretty damn good. In fact, they have the biggest edge in this series: starting pitching depth.
True, the Phillies have the best pitcher in the series in Cole Hamels, and he seems prepared to be a star this postseason, unlike his one-and-done last year. But after that, the Phils rely on soft-throwing vets, and Joe Blanton, who's not good for much this year (although Milwaukee didn't solve him). Seriously, while I respect Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer and think both are great pitchers to have over the long haul of a regular season, they aren't the type I would rely on now. The Jeff Suppans of the world, guys like that who step up in the postseason, are few and far between.
Lowe is similar, but has a proven track record. Billingsley and Kuroda are more typical ace-types, even if they aren't to that level yet.
So, if the Phils want to win, they will likely need two wins from Hamels. Then if they can get one from either Moyer or Myers somewhere, it could leave an interesting situation. The pivotal matchup in this series could be Blanton against whomever the Dodgers pitch in Game 4. Strange, isn't it. But that's the matchup that doesn't seem to have a favorite.
OK, so now we look at the lineups, and it's like the exact opposite. The Dodgers have the top gun (Manny), but the Phils (Utley, Rollins, Howard) have three legitimate stars, all of whom can change a game. That doesn't even include Shane Victorino and Pat Burrell, Victorino a clutch hitter, and Burrell typically the opposite, but still very dangerous.
L.A. has Rafael Furcal back, a key piece to its success, and Russell Martin is a very good hitter, and Andre Ethier is far better than most people realize. But the rest of their lineup is inconsistent, like James Loney, Matt Kemp and Jeff Kent. Those guys could easily go cold.
So the offensive edge seems to clearly be on Philly's side.
The bullpens feel like a moot point, but the Phils could have a bit more trouble in the middle innings if the older starters don't go deep. If it gets to Lidge, you can pretty much count it in the books, despite his postseason history.
[A note on the infamous Albert Pujols home run that allegedly destroyed Brad Lidge's postseason mindset: What people don't realize is that Lidge wasn't pitching well in that postseason before the Pujols homer in Game 5, which was a bomb of epic proportions. He gave up an earned run in Game 3, and nearly blew a save in game 4, which had the Cardinals won, they likely would have won the series. The only thing that saved him was the final play, either a spectacular double play turn by the infield, or a blown call depending on your personal point of view. Either way, if John Mabry hustles out of the box, Larry Walker scores and that game is tied. But, I'm not holding a grudge or anything.
The point is, Lidge was just off that October, in general. The Pujols homer was waiting to happen. He's not off right now.]
So that could be a minor advantage to the Dodgers, or a major one depending on the series. I would prefer to see Philly win this one. I can't root for either Joe Torre or Manny Ramirez personally, or the team that would vulture Manny when he was intentionally tanking it for his previous team for no good reason.
But the more I think about it, the more I like L.A. to win this series, particularly if that middle game goes their way or Lowe steals one from Hamels (which could easily happen). I'm going to take L.A. in six games.


Of course, what I pick usually comes true about half the time. So take the above picks with a grain of salt. I could just be trying to manipulate it to go the way I want.
But, with my luck they'll both go the way I don't want, and I'll be forced to sit through a Sox-Dodgers series.

opening day memories

Well, I got out to St. Louis to be with my fellow Cardinals fans for Opening Day festivities, in a year fraught with fear and trepidation of just what may come. For the record, it appears Cards fans are torn between those who buy all the hype that has had them picked to finish last in the division by some outlets (Sports Illustrated among them), and those like me who believe there is potential for special stuff in this team. But that didn't stop the fans from coming down to the park, which is spectacular, for the opener.
Things were even going really well for the Cards, holding a 5-1 lead over defending NL champ Colorado in the third inning, with ace Adam Wainwright on the mound, and the bad taste of last year quickly leaving... and then...
Allow me again to be a fan, and inject some of my, shall I say, charming personality traits (superstition chief among them) into my otherwise well-grounded blog. The baseball gods struck again.
The gods just could not deal with a 5-1 Cards lead, obviously still mad that they allowed a mediocre-at-best team to win its 10th World Series title in 2006, and sent the rains. What was supposed to be a drizzle, or on and off showers, turned into a downpour, and I was treated to the sight of what 10,000 Cardinals fans look like huddled under the left field stands. It was a pretty beautiful sight, I must say, but the game, my pilgrimage to St. Louis, was rained out. (For the record I brought a sign to the game, and managed to get on the big screen as a part of the left field seating section known as "Big Mac Land", sponsored of course by McDonald's. The sign read: Connecticut Cards Fan on Opening Day Pilgrimage. But very few people seemed to understand or care.)
I had to fly back to Connecticut to prepare for spring season here, and did not get to go to the makeup game, but here's how it went. Kip Wells, the pitcher who destroyed the Cardinals' season a year ago by not just being mediocre, not just bad, but at times worse than some high school pitchers I cover, picked up the emergency makeup start for his new team the Rockies. Ironically, he pitched six innings and allowed only one run, and to make matters worse than ever for Cardinals fans, the Rockies came back to win the game 2-1.
Now, I'm left asking myself this question: Are the baseball gods merely playing a one-day trick, sort of a last laugh because the situation presented itself and they just couldn't resist, or is this a sign of what is to come the rest of the season?
Well, wins the following two days seemed to brighten the picture, and I don't care if it's April 4, I'm enjoying a four-way tie for first place. We will see.
But I have to give it to those baseball gods. They've got a hell of a sense of humor.

I hope I haven't taken up too much of your time.

the most wonderful time of the year

To say I love baseball might not express it enough. It's not even that I am so in love with the sport itself as the things it represents. Baseball is not only the game of our childhood (who doesn't remember having a catch in the back yard, or heading down to the field for a game on a warm spring or summer night?), but also the game of warm weather. It is the one major team sport that is played almost entirely during the summer in America. And I am definitely a warm weather kind of person.
So with the start of baseball season comes a promise that the mercury will soon be rising, and nothing makes me happier.
Baseball also has the appeal of being played almost every day. While we wait through days off during football and basketball seasons, our favorite baseball teams play at least six days a week. That means every day there is a game to look forward to each night. Enough said.
So, let me get into some of my thoughts on the MLB season. (As an aside, I am excited about getting to see some high school baseball and softball games too, but that's for another post.) First off, here's how I see each division going down, with a bit on each team. I'll also give estimated win totals, but I must admit I'm making them up on the spot, so don't do the math. It won't add up.

American League East
Boston (98 wins): The Red Sox are clearly the best team in baseball, and even with questions surrounding several pitchers (Beckett, Schilling, and the young guys), I can't see them not winning the division and finishing with the best record.
New York (93 wins): The Yanks lineup is still potent, maybe better than the Sox, but their pitching isn't close. And who knows whether Pettitte or Mussina have anything left. I think Joba should be starting, but I thought the same about Papelbon. Better to leave those decisions to guys who know better.
Tampa Bay (84 wins): Seriously. Don't sleep on the Rays. Kazmir and Shields are very good, the young hitters are better than you realize. But they're still not a contender.
Toronto (82 wins): I am not sold on this team... at all. It's hard to expect A.J. Burnett to be healthy for any length of time, and some people are starting to question Roy Halladay's stuff.
After them, what is the character of this team? A pretty solid lineup, assuming Alex Rios continues to get better. I don't know. I don't see it.
Baltimore (66 wins): Honestly, I could see them winning even less than that. This team lost Eric Bedard and even with a pair of young outfielders in Markakis and Jones (I think that's his name) they don't have anything to win. On top of that, the AL East has finally become the best division in baseball. Watch Peter Angelos squirm this year as Washington actually finishes with more wins.
AL Central
Cleveland (95 wins): Some still question this team. Nobody's really talking about them. But Sabathia is an ace, and might not be the best pitcher on his own team. Don't count Carmona out this year. I see improvement for Sizemore, Hafner had a very down year last year, and Victor Martinez may be the most unappreciated player in the game.
Detroit (94 wins): Yes, the lineup is the best in baseball. It's unfathomable how many runs they could score. 1100 is not out of the question.
But, the pitching staff is still holey. Verlander's great, but after him, who's a definite. Don't expect anything from Dontrelle. If you really look at his stats he had one-and-a-half good seasons. But people fell in love with his style and charisma too much to recognize he hasn't been that good since. They need their riflemen in the bullpen to get healthy.
Chicago (87 wins): I'm not sure why, I just think this will be a solid year for them. I can't even say why. Ozzie might be crazy, or he might be brilliant. Or both. We'll see.
Minnesota (75 wins): Don't count on Liriano after the injury. Oh, he has great stuff, but will he last for a full season. And will it matter. The lineup, other than two really good hitters, is pretty average, and even Mauer won't give you any power. The Twins are waiting for their new stadium to open, and I bet they'll try to make a splash in free agency leading up to that.
Kansas City (68 wins): Sure, this team has started throwing some money around, but has it improved the team. Count me in the 'no' category.
AL West
LA of Anaheim (92 wins): Any lineup with Vlad, and team with Mike Scioscia, has a leg up. Scioscia is a great manager at doing a lot with average talent. Vlad seems to be forgotten, but still put up monster numbers a year ago (.324, 27, 125).
Seattle (90 wins): I love the Bedard acquisition, but I'm still not sure this team has enough. King Felix has to stay healthy and avoid the lapses that have hurt him. If he becomes a true ace, this team will pass the Angels.
Texas (77 wins): I don't really know much about this team. But the AL should do very well in interleague, so I can't see them too far below .500.
Oakland (72 wins): The A's have looked 'OK' so far in their two games, but if Rich Harden isn't healthy, this team is very, very bad. They're bad even with him, and I think he's a top ten pitcher if he's healthy. But when you're saying, 'Well, Jack Cust is an underrated player', you have problems.

NL East
New York (94 wins): There's a lot of questions here. After Santana, the rotation is still very old, or very young. I like Maine, but Hernandez can't keep going and Pedro is an injury risk.
Then offensively, is Delgado done? Does Beltran have a star season or an above-average one? How about David Wright. When does he start hitting for more power. But, this lineup still has a lot of guys who scare you.
Philadelphia (91 wins): I am the biggest Cole Hamels fan on the planet, outside of Philly. And the three stars in the lineup are enough to make this a good offensive team. Also, look for Shane Victorino if healthy and playing every day to have a great year.
Atlanta (86 wins): Who knew Chipper Jones still had these numbers: .337, 29, 102? Not me. But I bet Braves fans like that.
Washington (82 wins): There is a mystical quality to opening a new park. And this team overachieved so much last year, I have to believe in their managing enough to think playing in front of fans could get them over 80 wins.
Florida (64 wins): I know about Ramirez and Uggla and the young guys. But seriously, who's going to pitch? I had to look this up, but apparently the answer is Mark Hendrickson, Scott Olsen, Andrew Miller, Rick VandenHurk, Ricky Nolasco. Eek.
NL Central
Chicago (89 wins): No closer (assuming Kerry Wood is still Kerry Wood), a shaky bottom of the rotation if Jason Marquis is starting, but a solid to very good lineup. I look for Derek Lee to be great, Soriano to be great and the others to all contribute. Please God, don't let the Cubs win two years in a row.
St. Louis (87 wins): I know you will call me a homer, or just plain crazy. I know that right now the pitching depth chart looks bad. And I know that Pujols could literally watch his elbow snap. But I am optimistic as a fan.
Adam Wainwright is a legitimate ace pitcher now (more on that later), and any lineup with Pujols is going to be dangerous. Of course a lot needs to go right, and if it doesn't it could be bad. But the 78 wins the Cards got last year were with just about everything going wrong that possibly could, and they got better as the year went on.
Kip Wells is gone, which has to be good for at least five more wins, and should Mulder and Carpenter come back healthy and effective, that's as good a three-man rotation as any in the game. I just hope we're not cursed. That '06 World Series probably pissed off the baseball gods something fierce when they came out of their drunken stupor.
Milwaukee (84 wins): I'm not big on this team either. And bad luck seems to be following them. Gallardo and Capuano hurt already, the latter out for the year. Sheets can usually be counted on to follow, and if Jeff Suppan has to be your ace, you're in trouble, as solid a starter as he is.
Is it just me, or are some people overprojecting Ryan Braun this year the way they did Sizemore last year? He should be great some time soon, but there's no guarantee it's this year. And Fielder is no guarantee yet either. But the upside for this team could be big, if things go right.
Cincinnati (78 wins): The best thing going for Cincinnati, for the first time in a long time, might be the top of its rotation. Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo should put up very good numbers in the NL. The lineup still strikes out too much, though, and the rest of the rotation doesn't overwhelm me.
Houston (73 wins): I expect a huge dropoff for this team. Age is starting to settle in, and I think management is slipping. Roy Oswalt is awesome, and Berkman has been nothing but great for a bunch of years now. But the team banked too much on Tejada, who has very little of his old power left, and is destined to fall off quickly.
Pittsburgh (70 wins): At least they still have the best park in baseball. The joke about the park itself refusing to open until the team is good is getting really old.
As usual the Pirates have a bunch of young guys with some talent who will underachiever individually and even more collectively. Matt Capps is the next guy to eventually be lost to another team.
NL West
Arizona (95 wins): Forget the Mets, I think this is the best team in the NL. I think they were last year, too. But one bad playoff series can kill that.
Dan Haren gives them a second ace, with Brandon Webb being arguably the best pitcher in the NL. If the Unit can do anything the rotation could be scary good.
Plus there are future stars all over the lineup, even though most of them aren't there yet. The D-Backs look like they should be the NL team that forces others to spend and catch up in the next few years, and finally bring back the balance between the leagues.
Los Angeles (90 wins): Torre is not my favorite manager, nor do I think he's the best. But he brings a calm that has been sorely missing for this franchise for years. And he's got a very solid team on both sides of the ball. Nothing spectacular, but very good.
Or, Brad Penny could get hurt as usual, and the team could fall apart, as usual.
Colorado (86 wins): I expect a dropoff here. The rotation is really not that good, even though they finally have guys whose home/road splits aren't dramatic. Todd Helton might have another big dropoff year, and Matt Holliday can't duplicate last year. Can he?
Tulowitzki is the player to build around.
San Diego (85 wins): This team should be great, but gets so little offense and seems poorly designed to deal with its park. Peavy and Young are a dynamic 1/2, so if they do overachieve and get to the playoffs, they are dangerous. But why, oh why, did they trade for Jim Edmonds, even if he was dirt cheap? Edmonds can still field with the best, but his offense is actually a detriment to the team, and he might not even be healthy, creating instability in both areas.
San Francisco (68 teams): No team will be out of the playoff race sooner than San Francisco with the balanced teams ahead of them. They won't finish close to fourth. And I don't want to hear how good Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are. The offense is simply awful, and old, which means it should only get worse.

So, that's that. The reason I am doing this early (even if the season technically started) is that I am off in the morning to St. Louis, to fulfill a "religious" duty. I will be attending opening day with a good friend of mine, and it should be an experience to remember. It's tough being a diehard fan of a team that I so rarely get to see on TV, let alone in person. I managed to see the old Busch Stadium in September the last year it was open, and this will be my first visit to the new one, which was already underway at that time.
There's something about being able to spend time around a large number of fans in the same place. There's a comaraderie to it that I don't get to experience much. Only UConn basketball gives me that on a regular basis, and I regret that. But, I will stay loyal to the teams I chose to support as a young kid.
I get a chance to see Wainwright in his first opening day start. I expect there will be several more down the line, and it gives us a good chance to start the season off with a win against the defending NL champs. If not, I'll be a bit depressed.
Anyways, look for me in the left field upper deck on Monday.

an unwritten law

While it is most certainly bracket season, the MLB regular season is just on the horizon and I wanted to share an interesting story I read, as well as perform a small experiment.
The Tampa Bay franchise, formerly known as the Devil Rays, has officially changed its name to the Rays. The intention, or one of them, was to illicit thoughts of the Florida sunshine as opposed to the sea creature. I'm not sure how that will help them, but they apparently are quite serious about it.
As reported by ESPN's Buster Olney, team president Matt Silverman has begun issuing $1 fines to those who slip up and lapse into their old habits of "name-calling". So far, the team has raised approximately $100 to be donated to the team's official charity, collected from players, management, friends, and interestingly the media.
Tampa fans are asked to report instances of media across the country using the old moniker rather than the official one, and Silverman is sending out citations to them. Of course it is largely in good fun.
Now, I am curious about this. How big has my small blog become? To find out, I feel I'm going to have to make myself a fifth-rate criminal.
Now, the earlier mention of the name in this blog doesn't apply, because Silverman says that historical references are acceptable use of the old name. So I'm going to have to do this right. It's a perfect chance to talk about a team that several of us on the Herald staff believe will be greatly improved this year.
Seriously, if you are a Yankees or Red Sox fan, don't sleep on this team. Aside from the sad news about Rocco Baldelli's degenerative muscle disease, it has been a good offseason for Tampa. Good young pitcher James Shields could give a 1-2 punch to the rotation when coupled with Scot Kazmir, should Kaz remain healthy. The team's lineup is much improved, and management made a wise decision to turn off the Barry Bonds free agency trail.
A playoff spot seems unlikely with the competition in the division and across the American League, but if things go right this will be the first time the Devil Rays... excuse me, the Rays, enter the land of winning teams.
Now, Mr. Silverman, if you're really listening, I will be expecting my citation. Send it care of
The Herald
1 Herald Sq.
New Britain, CT, 06051

new, improved playoff picks

I never said I was perfect. I merely implied it.
With that in mind, I would like to revise my National League playoff picks. Things didn't go exactly right.
I am amused that every series I thought would go long was a sweep and the one I thought would be a sweep lasted an extra-long fourth game. I am still trying to figure out how the Cubs lost. I mean, the baseball gods must really have it in for them. Maybe they just like round numbers, like 100, the number of years it will have been since the Cubs last won a World Series when spring training rolls around. Say it with me Cubs fans. "Wait til next year!"
Now that I have that out of my system, on to the LCS. I don't care what anybody says. The team name on the jersey doesn't matter this time of year. I don't care that the Mets, Cubs, Braves, Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers or Giants, more storied franchises, aren't there (well, all except the Cardinals). The team with the best record in the league is there, and the hottest team on the planet as well. If the Rockies played the Patriots right now they'd probably win. I don't think they even remember what it is like to lose a game.
But, they're going to find out in Game 1 when Brandon Webb shuts them down. Jeff Francis is a nice pitcher, but he's not Webb.
I do wonder how the Diamondbacks have done so well this year despite being outscored. That is one of the strangest stats in baseball history. But give credit to a team that sniffs a win and grabs it. If they are in the game, you expect them to win it somehow at the end.
Colorado has the better lineup here, and not just because of Coors. Holliday, Tulowitzki, Helton and Hawpe are all solid to MVP-caliber players. Arizona's best bat is Eric Byrnes, a very fun player and one I would love to have on my team, but not a star by any stretch. Stephen Drew is on fire right now, but not a guarantee to hit.
Neither team has a great rotation after the first couple guys. The bullpens are solid, but something has to give before we get there.
And that something is Brandon Webb. I know, he can only pitch in three games at most, and if Bob Melvin is smart will only throw twice. (I've always been opposed to pitching guys on short rest in the postseason. Eric Wedge, good decision, Joe Torre, very, very bad.) But a team has to like its chances with the best player in this series on the mound for them.
I think Arizona will win both of Webb's starts, get a narrow win somewhere else and get at least one great performance from the trio of Doug Davis, Livan Hernandez and Micah Owings, inconsistently very good pitchers.
Arizons wins this one in six games, and hopefully for the fans they will be a lot of fun to watch.
I'm going to stick with my previous Red Sox prediction in the AL, seeing as both the previous series went just about as I expected. However, this leads me to a realization. That would set up a WS matchup of Red Sox (2004 champs) and Diamondbacks (2001 champs). Along with my other crackpot theories (Yankees still seem cursed to me), I have another that we will not see a repeat champion this decade. That means I'm going to get at least one of these series wrong. And therefore, whichever team wins that one, will have to win the World Series as well.
Illogical, I know. But so is baseball.