Finals Saturday

Today should be exciting, and I regret that I won't be at any of the football games. I will be filling in for Sports Editor Matt Straub at the Central men's and women's basketball games while he is out sick. He should be back by next week though, in time for me to hit the courts for some high school basketball, which starts up right away.
But football first.
Six games today. Six predictions.
I had a very good run of 8-3 in the semifinal round, which was a big change from last year when I got just about everything wrong. Let's see how I do with these even tougher games.

Class LL, Glastonbury vs. Cheshire: I'll say I'm still not terribly impressed with Glastonbury. I don't know why. I just don't believe the Tomahawks are that good, and I don't think they're going to break the CCC's run of struggles in this game.
I think Ragone will have a big day for Cheshire and the Rams will return to their glory days of the 1990s for a brief moment. But I'm not saying that will last.
Class L, Newington vs. Masuk: It's been quite a season for the Indians after most prognosticators, myself included, thought a .500 season would be a stretch. I figured out I was wrong about that after watching them once this year, in the opener against Hall, and immediately jumped to the other bandwagon saying I thought they could win a state title. That was reactionary, but they're making that look smart.
However, I think this is the end of the road. Newington played maybe it's best game of the year against Simsbury, so they're peaking at the right time. But it's hard to match what Masuk has done the last two weeks.
I don't think it will be a blowout. In fact, I'd expect closer to a shootout. But I think Masuk will put it away solidly at the end.
Class MM: New Canaan vs. Darien: This is the best matchup of the day, the one everybody in the state wants to know about. The winner of this probably gets voted number one unless Glastonbury wins, because just about everybody has either a loss or no marquee wins.
I've been saying since week three that I thought New Canaan was the best team this year. I'm not backing off it now. I think they'll win this one in a great game.
Class M: Ledyard vs. Brookfield: Ask anybody if they thought Ledyard would be back here after getting killed by Berlin opening night. If they're honest they'll say no. In fact, most thought it would be the Redcoats returning to this time take home a title.
But here's Ledyard. And here's Brookfield, going almost completely unnoticed all season despite having only one loss (to Newtown).
I don't think Ledyard will repeat, because I think Brookfield's a significantly stronger team. But maybe it's too early still to count out the defending champs.
Class SS: Seymour vs. New London: Quite honestly, while SS proved to be a very good division this year, these are the teams that most people probably would have picked to get here. The funny thing is New London doesn't look quite as invincible as they did six weeks ago, and after seeing them in person last week the Wildcats look extremely good. They have size up front, speed on the ends, and a super talent in Mike Osiecki at fullback.
The fans everywhere will love to hear the score from this one. They always do when Jack Cochran's involved. And I think Paul Sponheimer goes out with a championship over his longtime rival.
Class S: Cromwell vs. Ansonia: It's hard for a Rocky Hill alum to say this, but I'll be pulling hard for Cromwell in this one. I get tired of seeing Ansonia dominate, and I'd like to see an unlikely school get a win over one of the state's all-time powerhouses.
I was wrong when Cromwell got to the playoffs last year. New London killed them and then got pounded by Ansonia. But this Ansonia team is nowhere near as good. And this Cromwell team might have been a little bit better and is still looking for revenge from the last time the school got to the final.
I like the Panthers to take this one home.

football semifinals

It's that time again. Time for state playoffs in football, and lo and behold it's not even that cold today. That should make for some enjoyable games today at least. As for Saturday, that's anybody's guess.

I am about to head out to see Rocky Hill take on Seymour. It's the Terriers second playoff appearance after losing 22-19 to Hyde in 2005, a game that Rocky Hill probably deserved to win but missed a couple key chances at the end. We'll see if it's any different this time around, as Rocky Hill is once again a pretty heavy underdog.

But in general I'd say this is the most wide open the playoffs have looked in several years, at least since I've been covering them. Of the six divisions, I'd say only one has a definite clear favorite (Brookfield in M) and one other with a pretty safe prohibitive favorite (Masuk in L). The other four have two, three or even four teams that conceivably could win. I'm going to be curious just to see the scores come in after each game and see who stacks up where. The state polls should shuffle a lot by next week, but don't be surprised if New Canaan is still on top.

I'll start with the one other local game and go from there.

CLASS L

Newington at Simsbury: Up until Thursday I was worried about the way the Indians had been playing. Then they reminded me why I thought they were a title contender from very early on in the year. They pounded Wethersfield offensively, and even though the defense wasn't outstanding, it seemed to make the plays when it needed to, at least when the game was in doubt. It's hard to stay focused on Turkey Day with a 28-point lead.

Simsbury is good, and has certainly come from relative obscurity midway through the season to be one of the better teams in the state. Who would have guessed that Simsbury would be the second team in the CCC North to make a playoff game?

I don't know why. I like Newington to win a close one here. It's been quite a while since the Indians won a playoff game, but they played one of their better games of the season last week, and I think, should they stay healthy for this, they can get it done.

As for injuries, expect Harrison Scully and Jon Riddick to play in this one. There's no saving yourself for anything else at this point. And both are pretty tough kids.

Windsor at Masuk: Like I said, Masuk is a pretty solid favorite to win this, especially after pounding Newtown. While Windsor's been a good team this year, they have not been lights out. They have mediocre games, and never seem to blow anybody out.

I doubt they'll be able to put up a great fight against a very good team like Masuk.

CLASS LL

LL is more wide open than in years, mostly because the state's best reside in other divisions, mainly MM. But there are still some really good teams here.

Newtown at Glastonbury: Newtown really got pounded, and had New Britain or Southington won last week, might be sitting at home right now. So ironically, they have their current opponent to thank for their playoff spot.

I actually don't think they'll be returning any favors. While Glastonbury made it unblemished through a pretty good schedule, I don't think it was as good as what Newtown played. And I think Newtown's going to be pretty excited to play at this point after what happened last week.

I expect Newtown to sneak away. This is the game where Glastonbury doesn't get away with a mediocre performance, unlike when they played Southington.

Cheshire at Hamden: These two have been very under the radar. The buzz I hear about Hamden is they've always had the numbers and athleticism to be a good program, but now they have the coach too. Cheshire is hoping to regain its glory days.

I've felt pretty good about Hamden all season long, though, and I like the to sneak out in a competitive game here too.

CLASS MM

This is the cream of the crop. You could argue the top three teams in the state are all in this division. And poor Weaver is the fourth team that will have to try and deal with that, but shouldn't be around for very long. I'm really excited about these games.

Weaver at New Canaan: I saw Weaver against Wethersfield and quite honestly they got lucky. They should have lost, looking extremely unimpressive.

Meanwhile, I've felt all year long that New Canaan is the best team in the state. I don't expect this to even be close, although Rob Fleeting is a very good coach, and may have some tricks up his sleeve to even this out a bit. Still, look for New Canaan to roll.

Darien at Hillhouse: Darien's only loss was to New Canaan. Hillhouse went unbeaten against a slightly easier schedule, but not much. This is one heck of a semifinal matchup.

To be honest, I really would like to see a Darien-New Canaan rematch, so I will say that I expect that to happen. But I'm not so sure.

I really wish I could see this game.

CLASS M

Brookfield has a pretty open run here. None of the others were consistently impressive, and quite honestly Cheney Tech is overmatched.

Avon at Brookfield: Avon plays one of the easiest schedules in the state, and this year Tolland wasn't even as good competition as they usually are. I don't know much about Brookfield's schedule, but they sure pounded everybody.

I expect Brookfield to win this pretty easily.

Cheney Tech at Ledyard: Before Ledyard beat New London I thought they were slightly above average at best. Now they look like they could conceivably repeat as champs.

Cheney, for as well as they have played in earning this spot, is not on a level with any of the other playoff teams. The best team Cheney beat this year was either Prince Tech or East Catholic. That doesn't say a lot. Meanwhile, Ledyard is rolling after knocking off a true state powerhouse two weeks ago.

This won't be fair. But, as for me, I do feel Cheney deserves to play this game. They beat everybody on their schedule.

CLASS SS

The other matchup in this is probably the second best game in the state tonight, and either Rocky Hill or Seymour won't have an easy time in the final. In fact, I think this and LL are the two most balanced divisions this year. Any of the four teams could win either one. I wouldn't be surprised at all.

Montville at New London: Still, Montville got lucky. After putting up a one-point loss to the Whalers a few weeks ago, they had only to win on Thanksgiving Eve to clinch a spot, and lost to a pretty good St. Bernard group, but one they easily should have beaten.

Then Wolcott returned the favor by losing to Holy Cross the next day, so Montville's back in for what they probably had their minds on already. This is a grudge match.

I actually expect Montville to win this, in a thriller. The Whalers have struggled in big games since Jack Cochran got there, a strange thing to say about him. They are 0-2 in state finals, lost to Ledyard a few weeks ago and I think they are ripe for another upset against a team that is familiar with them. There's no playoff intimidation factor in this one.

CLASS S

Another set of games I'd love to be at. If you love the strategy of the game, and the roots with players going both ways, this is for you. These schools with small numbers bring the best out of athletes, and while the level of play isn't quite up to the LL and L brackets, the coaching is some of the best and the excitement from the schools might be even greater.

Hyde at Cromwell: This is the year Cromwell gets its playoff glory. The Panthers have a conference opponent that they beat pretty solidly first, and Ansonia is not as good as last year. Plus New London isn't around and these Panthers aren't intimidated by Hyde.

It's clear I think Cromwell will win Saturday too, but for now, I'll just say they should get past this one.

North Branford at Ansonia: I was stunned to see North Branford beat Cromwell, and I think the Panthers would love to get that matchup. But don't count on it. Even if Ansonia isn't as good as last year, they're still better than most. It's hard to be as good as a team that was voted the best in the state and had the state's all-time leading rusher.

Ansonia is used to getting to this point and winning. North Branford is relatively new to the game, although they got here in 2006.

So that's it. Let's see how these go now. I am headed out the door. See you at the game.