Week 5 preview/picks

Back to the gridiron for another exciting weekend of games. Things should shake up a little bit with some key matchups in a few divisions. Locally it's not a bad slate of games either. There are some that you should definitely get out to.
I will not be covering anything this weekend. I'll be in the office on Friday night taking phone calls, and at a wedding on Saturday afternoon. So, it's open for me to make picks on all of these games.
Friday:
Bloomfield at Newington, 7 p.m.: This could be a trap game for Newington after a big win over Conard last week, but the thing about the Indians is they don't seem to take anything for granted. They haven't really played poorly in a game yet this year, and I don't really expect them to.
The key will be whether they can get healthy with both fullbacks (Harrison Scully and Fred Ortiz) nursing injuries. Those two are key to what the offense can do because they fight for small chunks on first down, and keep defenses honest, allowing the passing game and Spencer Parker's legs to make big plays.
I don't know much about Bloomfield, but their games tend to be shootouts. There should be a decent amount of scoring in this one, although the Newington defense has been good. I expect the Indians to get a win here and keep on rolling.
Conard at Southington, 7 p.m.: I saw Conard last week, and they are very dangerous. Southington is the epitome of consistency and good coaching, never ceasing to impress onlookers with how prepared the Knights are for each and every game.
I'm not quite sure why the Knights' game against Bristol Eastern was so close last week. Eastern's good, but I didn't think they were in Southington's strata this year. Either way, it should end up being a wakeup call for the Knights.
I think Southington will pull away late, with the defense proving too much for Conard to get much going.
Farmington at East Hartford, 7 p.m.: I don't have many words for the Indians. They just aren't playing well. East Hartford's not great, but they're probably too good for Farmington to hang with.
East Hartford wins going away.
Rocky Hill at Plainville, 7 p.m.: Same goes for Plainville as for Farmington. And the bigger problem is that Rocky Hill is very good. Now, the Terriers weapons don't translate as well on grass as on their own artificial turf. But they should be able to dominate this matchup up front and score a bunch.
Rocky Hill will win easily.
St. Paul/Goodwin/Mills at Enfield, 7 p.m.: Enfield didn't put up much of a fight against Rocky Hill, but I still say they are dangerous if a team isn't ready for them. So far everything's been going St. Paul's way, but I think they could find themselves in a fight here.
I still think the Falcons will win though. They look to be legit.
Saturday:
Glastonbury at Wethersfield, 12 p.m.: The Eagles first test, against Manchester, wasn't exactly a success. Turnovers were costly and the team let one slip away that they definitely should have won.
Make no mistake about it. Glastonbury is better than Manchester. Now, last year the Eagles' defense kept Glastonbury in check and gave the offense chances to win. It's still possible this year, but I don't think things look good.
Maybe home field will prove fruitful for Wethersfield, but I expect Glastonbury to win.
New Britain at Hall, 1:30 p.m.: The Hurricanes better bounce back quickly, cause Hall's a team that can beat you, like Weaver, if you aren't prepared. New Britain has always bounced back well in recent years after surprising losses. That's a positive thing to say about the team.
And I don't think Hall has quite the firepower to handle New Britain either. But I don't think this will be a blowout by any chance.
New Britain should win by less than two touchdowns.
State pick of the week:
Cromwell at Tolland, Friday, 6:30 p.m.: Out of a bunch of games with big playoff implications, this one interests me most. Cromwell's been showing up in some state polls lately, and I, for one, think they deserve it. The Panthers' program has been very impressive in recent years. Just ask Plainville coach Rocky Gagliardi, who was an assistant there at one time.
Meanwhile, Tolland made the playoffs last year, and is right in the hunt again this year. Both teams are unbeaten so far.
While the trip is a long one for Cromwell, I think the Panthers are among the elite in the small classes, and I expect them to get a big win in this one. Ironically, one team that will be rooting for that is Rocky Hill. The Terriers are chasing several teams in Class SS, Tolland among them.
Some other big matchups for the week (which won't necessarily make for competitive games):
New London at St. Bernard/Norwich Tech
Windham at Stonington
Greenwich at Ridgefield
Seymour at Crosby
Brookfield at Masuk
Danbury at Staples
Avon at Hyde Leadership
North Branford at Ellington/Somers
Those all pit teams with playoff aspirations, or the talent to pull off an upset. Now personally I don't think some of these matchups will be close. But the team that loses will still take a big hit in the points standings. This should be an exciting weekend.

MLB playoff predictions (take 2)

Sometimes I feel happy getting things half right. The MLB playoffs are definitely one of those times.
After all, I was exactly right about the Rays and Phillies... in four games! That never happens. I was right that the Red Sox-Angels series would be tight, and don't be fooled that it didn't go five games. The Angels had a lead in Game 1 and were right in it in Game 4. That easily could have gone the other way, and sports editor Matt Straub almost had three cardiac arrests during the week.
And then there were the Cubs.
OK, I won't avoid talking about it. I was wrong about the Cubs, well, sort of. I said that at some point something would stop them from winning, as always. I just had no idea it would be so early on. I never would have predicted four errors in one game, all from the infield. I never thought their entire stacked lineup would fall asleep. I never thought Huroki Kuroda and Chad Billingsley would prove to be aces when it mattered most. So, I was wrong about that.
Time to regroup and go at this again. And I love both of these LCS matchups. This should be exciting baseball.
ALCS, Red Sox at Rays
The sad thing is, if the Sox win this, then the Rays year, and accomplishments, will go the way of many before them. Who remembers the 2001 Mariners? They went 116-46 in the regular season, but lost the ALCS to the Yankees. And it was in New York, not Seattle, that the President threw out the opening pitch. Maybe that was just fate. But those Mariners, one of the best teams ever, are largely forgotten, and it's only seven years later.
How about the 1995 Indians? Try 100-44 in a strike-shortened regular season. But they lost to the Braves in the World Series (ironic that the one Braves team that won in the end was the one that was a huge underdog). So, your average fan doesn't remember just how good that Indians team was.
The point is, the Rays won the AL East by playing great all year long and holding off the Sox in the last two weeks of the year. But if they lose this series, it won't matter. In the end, people will remember the Red Sox as the better team (whether they were or not) and the Rays will be something for the history books only, not baseball lore.
And it could easily happen. These teams both have three VERY reliable starting pitchers, and a fourth that isn't bad in a pinch. I give the Rays the edge in that middle game, but other than that, how can you pick against any of the six guys going?
How about offense? The Red Sox sure look a lot like they did this time last year, balanced and dangerous. Who wants to pitch to Pedroia, Youkilis, or that Ortiz guy? Not to mention Jason Bay is proving he's pretty good, J.D. Drew is always dangerous and you can expect somebody else to step up eventually.
As for the Rays, they just looked very good against the White Sox, and Carlos Pena (the pride of Northeastern University) didn't hit a single homer in the series. He did bat .500 in three games.
If B.J. Upton heats up, he's a series changer. Same goes for Longoria, and Pena. That's a VERY good lineup.
There's little question that these are the two best remaining teams, and many people believe whoever wins this is taking home the World Series. That will have to wait. For now, it's going to come down to those late-game situations, that the Red Sox have been so good at during their postseason success years.
But the Rays have the much deeper bullpen, aside from the Sox advantage in postseason experience the only big edge either team has anywhere. I think that's critical, and I'm not the biggest believer in the importance of a strong pen. Strong pens don't win games. But at this point in the year, when every game is so important, they keep you from blowing one.
I hope this goes seven games. I hope they're all close. I hope Red Sox fans have 1,000 heart attacks over the next week.
And in the end, I hope their hearts are broken, if only so that the Rays get to shine. This team deserves it, and I hate seeing the kind of things that happened in 2001 and 1995 (except when it comes to last year's Patriots).
I may be picking with my heart, but I am picking Tampa in seven games.
NLCS, Dodgers at Phillies
This is weird, because entering the playoffs, I thought the Cubs were so clearly the best team in the NL that I hadn't quite considered the possibility the Dodgers would be in this series. Of course, I knew the Dodgers COULD win that series, I just never thought about what it would set up afterwards, how they would shape up for a seven-game series.
Truth be told, they shape up pretty damn good. In fact, they have the biggest edge in this series: starting pitching depth.
True, the Phillies have the best pitcher in the series in Cole Hamels, and he seems prepared to be a star this postseason, unlike his one-and-done last year. But after that, the Phils rely on soft-throwing vets, and Joe Blanton, who's not good for much this year (although Milwaukee didn't solve him). Seriously, while I respect Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer and think both are great pitchers to have over the long haul of a regular season, they aren't the type I would rely on now. The Jeff Suppans of the world, guys like that who step up in the postseason, are few and far between.
Lowe is similar, but has a proven track record. Billingsley and Kuroda are more typical ace-types, even if they aren't to that level yet.
So, if the Phils want to win, they will likely need two wins from Hamels. Then if they can get one from either Moyer or Myers somewhere, it could leave an interesting situation. The pivotal matchup in this series could be Blanton against whomever the Dodgers pitch in Game 4. Strange, isn't it. But that's the matchup that doesn't seem to have a favorite.
OK, so now we look at the lineups, and it's like the exact opposite. The Dodgers have the top gun (Manny), but the Phils (Utley, Rollins, Howard) have three legitimate stars, all of whom can change a game. That doesn't even include Shane Victorino and Pat Burrell, Victorino a clutch hitter, and Burrell typically the opposite, but still very dangerous.
L.A. has Rafael Furcal back, a key piece to its success, and Russell Martin is a very good hitter, and Andre Ethier is far better than most people realize. But the rest of their lineup is inconsistent, like James Loney, Matt Kemp and Jeff Kent. Those guys could easily go cold.
So the offensive edge seems to clearly be on Philly's side.
The bullpens feel like a moot point, but the Phils could have a bit more trouble in the middle innings if the older starters don't go deep. If it gets to Lidge, you can pretty much count it in the books, despite his postseason history.
[A note on the infamous Albert Pujols home run that allegedly destroyed Brad Lidge's postseason mindset: What people don't realize is that Lidge wasn't pitching well in that postseason before the Pujols homer in Game 5, which was a bomb of epic proportions. He gave up an earned run in Game 3, and nearly blew a save in game 4, which had the Cardinals won, they likely would have won the series. The only thing that saved him was the final play, either a spectacular double play turn by the infield, or a blown call depending on your personal point of view. Either way, if John Mabry hustles out of the box, Larry Walker scores and that game is tied. But, I'm not holding a grudge or anything.
The point is, Lidge was just off that October, in general. The Pujols homer was waiting to happen. He's not off right now.]
So that could be a minor advantage to the Dodgers, or a major one depending on the series. I would prefer to see Philly win this one. I can't root for either Joe Torre or Manny Ramirez personally, or the team that would vulture Manny when he was intentionally tanking it for his previous team for no good reason.
But the more I think about it, the more I like L.A. to win this series, particularly if that middle game goes their way or Lowe steals one from Hamels (which could easily happen). I'm going to take L.A. in six games.


Of course, what I pick usually comes true about half the time. So take the above picks with a grain of salt. I could just be trying to manipulate it to go the way I want.
But, with my luck they'll both go the way I don't want, and I'll be forced to sit through a Sox-Dodgers series.

week 4 in review

Week 4 was devastating for some local teams, and a very good sign for others. First the positives.
Newington's win over Conard means two things: 1) The Indians are in the driver's seat for a spot in the Class L playoffs, and 2) The Indians are a very good team. Conard impressed me in the early going, and I thought for sure their bruising rushing attack would wear down Newington. But not so. The defense stuck it out, and the offense got just enough going to win.
Fans in Newington should be excited. That is a division that is wide open for a potential champion. Nobody jumps out. The players need to stay focused and take confidence from every win, without getting ahead of themselves.
Meanwhile, New Britain just shot itself in the foot with a loss to a weaker Weaver team. Now, the Beavers are good. But word from the game and around the state is that there was no reason New Britain should ever have lost this game. This makes every game on the schedule absolutely critical in an always-loaded Class LL. New Britain-Southington, at Rentschler Field in November, should be another battle with potential playoff spots on the line, but only for one team, not both.
Wethersfield, though it's playoff chances were probably not as good as New Britain, suffered a similar kind of loss. I know Manchester is showing up on some pollsters rankings. I know they're 4-0. But with the remaining schedule Wethersfield has, this was one of the easier games, and they lost it.
I think the Eagles will be favored in only one of their remaining games. But I think there are three or four others they will be capable of winning, including this week against Glastonbury. They better bounce back, or all the good vibes of a 3-0 start could be gone.
After the way Rocky Hill handled Enfield I am confident in saying that had the Terriers played Northwest Catholic on artificial turf, or even a good grass field, they would have won by 10 points or more. But c'est la vie. You get the schedule and you have to play the games where you're told. Don't lose hope, Terriers. The playoffs are still reachable. You've proven you are good.
No surprise for Berlin against East Catholic. Sadly, no surprise for Plainville or Farmington either, in blowout losses.
Oh, and Southington keeps winning, but this one wasn't quite as easy as expected. Maybe the Bristol Eastern Lancers have more in them than they showed early on.
I went 6-2 in my picks, including correctly picking Cheshire over Wilbur Cross. That brings my record on the year to 21-7, 3-1 in non-local picks.

I'll be back tomorrow to analyze the MLB League Championship Series.
And the day after that to look at this week's high school slate. For now I'll just say I've got so many numbers crunching through my head over the playoff point system already, that I don't know if I'll make it to the end of November without my noggin exploding.