week 4 football

Ok, time for me to remember that there are local events and stop watching the MLB playoffs for a bit.
I'll be covering Southington at Rockville on Friday and New Britain at South Windsor on Saturday. Therefore, no predictions on either of those games.
Here goes for the rest of them, and this should be a tough week. I'll really be happy to go .500.
Friday:
Bloomfield at Newington: For whichever of these teams makes the playoffs, if either do, this could be the game they look back at as pivotal. Should Bloomfield lose a second game, the Warhawks can all but kiss a Class S spot goodbye with the tight competition.
Newington has yet to get a chance against a really good team to prove itself. The Indians might be able to afford a loss, but this is a game you want to win to better your playoff chances, even in L.
Southington easily handled Bloomfield a few weeks ago, and either the Warhawks aren't as good as expected, Southington coach Bill Mella has done an amazing job, Class S schools can't hang with bigger ones, or some combination of all of those.
My guess is Newington wins this. I'm not even going to guess by how much. But if they do it will be a huge step for them.
Wethersfield at East Hartford: The Eagles made me look really foolish last week, but I'm sticking with them. I believe in this bunch, and while East Hartford has had some talent in the past and this year, I don't think the Hornets are as good as Bristol Eastern was. If the Eagles can keep the quarterback contained on defense, they will win.
Saturday, also known as "Nutmeg Day"
Farmington at Middletown: Who thought this would be a great matchup at the start of the season? Well, it should be fun. The Indians faltered against Enfield, with special teams taking a bad blow, but I hope and believe it will prove to have been a fluke.
Nonetheless, Middletown is always fast and dangerous, and this year they seem to have a stronger front line. This will go a long way to determine the second tier in the Nutmeg, and I think Middletown is still a little stronger, especially with a home crowd.
Middletown wins a thriller.
Rocky Hill at NW Catholic: I admit it. As a Terriers alumnus I wish I could be at this game. Two years ago when RH went to the playoffs this was their only loss, and it came in a mudbowl type game after a huge rainstorm. NWC scored on its first drive and after that the field was a wreck and neither team moved the ball the rest of the way.
I don't think RH is as good as that year, but they are better than when they got killed last year. Hopefully for them NWC is a little weaker.
Like Bloomfield, should Northwest lose their playoff chances are slim. Rocky Hill has a margin of error but with a game remaining against Berlin, this could be huge.
Look for both teams to stay on the ground with the offensive lines proving vital. Unfortunately, the Terriers have had some injuries there, and I think Northwest will come out on top.
But between you and me I'm hoping I'm wrong.
SPGTLM at East Catholic: I don't know what to think of this. Both teams are pretty bad. I don't even know where to begin to make an educated guess here, so I'll just say that I can't see East dropping this far off the map.
I think the Eagles will win.
Berlin at Enfield: Still looking for anybody to stay within 30 of the Redcoats, or hold them under 40. I don't think this will be either, although it's a long trip to the border.
I'm pretty sure Berlin will win.
RHAM/Lyman at Plainville: The Sachems are MUCH better this year. They have a solid quarterback to receiver combination and they don't look lost on the line as they had in previous years. Credit the coaching staff.
But after two tough losses, one close and one ... not, Scot Wenzel will be breathing fire for his players to get a win, and this is one they shouldn't lose.
Plainville bounces back with a convincing victory.
STATE GAME TO WATCH:
Shelton at Amity, Friday, 7 p.m: Boy, I wish I could say I knew more about these teams specifically. I do know that Shelton (3-0) is currently ranked second in the Class LL playoff standings and is in the top five in state polls. I also know Amity (3-0) is currently the top seed in Class L and faces the toughest task (in a tough schedule) this week.
The home fans would love to see the upset, but I don't think it's coming. Shelton will win, and further impress voters.

Things to watch:
Forget it. Just get out there. Wherever you live there's a good game to see this week. Home fans in particular (Newington, Plainville, Middletown) should show up in droves to cheer on their teams. This is going to be fun.

give me a second to compose myself

I'm going to let myself be an angry/sad fan for a moment here.
I learned within the last hour that the St. Louis Cardinals decided to send GM Walt Jocketty walking with a year left on his contract. This is the same GM that took over in 1994 when the "Hall of Fame" coach Joe Torre was struggling to get the Cards to a winning record, or for that matter to fifth place out of six each year.
Soon after, with the hiring of Tony LaRussa and pitching coach Dave Duncan, the 1996 Cards were a surprise entrant in the NLCS, and despite catastrophically blowing a three games to one lead, had a great run that year.
Jocketty continued to improve the team and made what I believe was his best move, largely forgotten by now, by signing free agent Daryl Kile out of Colorado. Kile would finish second in the Cy Young voting to lead St. Louis back to the NLCS, thanks to other Jocketty additions like Jim Edmonds (trade with Anaheim for Kent Bottenfield and Adam Kennedy), Fernando Vina (free agent), and late-season pickup Will Clark.
Keep adding to the list.
Scott Rolen for a young Placido Polanco and old Mike Timlin. Trading a disgruntled Ray Lankford for Woody Williams (who quickly became a God in St. Louis by always beating the Astros). Trading next to nothing to get Chuck Finley after Kile suddenly died. Adam Wainwright, Ray King and Jason Marquis for J.D. Drew and backup catcher/utility man Eli Marrero. Signing future Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter for peanuts, by banking on the chance that he would come back strong from Tommy John surgery.
And now Jocketty is out because owner Bill DeWitt decided to put one of his own men, Jeff Luhnow, in charge of scouting, creating a rift between Jocketty and the team. I don't need to remind Cardinals fans how bad our minor league system is, but for you others out there, after the crop of young, talented players we called up this year, anchored by the Rick Ankiel surprise, there is in the words of Jim Mora, "diddly-poo" in our system.
Up till now I thought LaRussa was safe, but now I doubt it. This ownership is looking to avert our eyes from their own failures and lay the blame elsewhere, deserved and undeserved. The worst part is with LaRussa will likely go Duncan, undeniably the best asset this team has had.
The Cardinals have been the team of the decade so far, at least in the National League. Only the Yankees have reached as many World Series since 2001 (2), and they have failed to win one. Only the Yankees and Braves have reached the postseason as many times since 2000 as the Cards, (8 and 6 respectively for them and 6 for St. Louis). The Cardinals made the NLCS five times in seven years. This looks like the end of the road in a way. I hope not. But I fear it.
I cannot wait to see what St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnists Bernie Miklasz and Rick Hummell have to say about this, as neither has been thrilled all the time with the team's direction. I gave DeWitt the benefit of the doubt ... until now.
Goodbye, Walt. And go easy on us when you find a new job.

rest of the week, for now

Sorry to be so late on this, but I'll be at the Goodwin Tech volleyball game this afternoon to see how the Gladiators are doing in a rebound year from their really fun CSC championship team a year ago.
Friday I'll be in Rockville for Rams/Southington football, my first chance to see the Knights in person this year.
Saturday I'm not sure about yet, but I will let you guys know when I make my weekly predictions, which I will say are the toughest yet this week. There's a lot of good matchups on the schedule and hopefully the games will equal the hype I'm going to give them.

playoff predictions

I'm getting this down in writing. A coworker lost my NBA picks from a year ago and there was no proof at the end of the season that I had picked San Antonio over Cleveland at the beginning of the year.
I just got back from a friend's apartment after watching the Padres-Rockies game. Quite a thriller even if as soon as it happened I said "he never touched the plate". Still, it makes me excited for the playoffs.
Let's pick the first round:
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Rockies vs. Phillies: I was torn during the one-game playoff. I love Peavy and Young for the Pads, but like the idea of these two teams playing games three and four in Denver. That could be a lot of fun with these lineups.
Still, I like the Phillies to get a win from Cole Hamels in the opener and in the clincher and prevail in five games. Top of their lineup can overcome a bad pitching performance deeper in the rotation.
Phils in 5.
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks: How the D-backs ended up with the best record in the NL despite a terrible team batting average and only slightly above average rotation is a mystery to me, no matter how weak the league is overall. Nonetheless, Brandon Webb better get the attention he deserves as one of the leagues five best pitchers, and it better be now.
However, there's something happening on Addison St. I'll say more about that later. For now I'll just say I think the Cubbies sneak past Webb in game five.
Cubs in 5.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Angels vs. Red Sox: I have no doubts about the fact that the Red Sox, not the Yankees, are the best team in the league. I don't care how the Yanks closed out the season. I don't care if the Sox played .500 ball for the last two months. They were better, and they won, despite giving "The Nation" a collective heart attack. The Sox are the favorites in the postseason.
The Angels and Indians are both sleepers though, and shouldn't be overlooked.
I was a little surprised Boston went with the long series to get their top two starters two games, and even more surprised when they named Daisuke the second starter, including a potential go in Game 5. Fortunately for them I don't think it will get there.
Beckett outduels Lackey in Game 1 and the Sox pound out runs in Game 4. In between, I think Kelvim Escobar tops Daisuke in Game 2. But Schilling will be the difference, winning Game 3.
Sox in 4.
Yankees vs. Indians: I've said it since January 1, 2001. The Yankees are cursed. And so far I can't be more right. Let me explain.
2001- Yanks lose one of the most painful Game 7's in history, handing the ball to the best postseason closer of all time, and watching he and the defense botch it, with a little help from a drawn in infield.
2002, 2003- Yanks are topped in the first round and World Series by upstart, unheralded, and young teams (Angels and Marlins). Both times the Bombers lose key games in New York and make stars out of opposing pitchers (K-Rod, Beckett).
2004- Worst collapse in sports history against your arch-rival. Period.
2005- Oh, those pesky Angels again. Only not as good as the first Anaheim of L.A. team.
2006- Tigers were better. But try convincing most analysts of that, especially before they won.
Get my point. Now listen closely.
THE YANKEES ARE THE NEW RED SOX.
I don't get why nobody else has mentioned this yet. They're cursed. They simply won too much last century, and the ever-present baseball gods are repaying them, and the rest of us, for it.
I don't need any other reason.
Indians in 3.

OK, now I'm going to go into my picks beyond that. If teams are different, I will change them and humbly make new picks in a week and a half.

NLCS, Cubs vs. Phillies
Truly strange things going on in Chicago. Did somebody say 1945. That's the last time the Cubs made the World Series.
Until now.
The Cubs will sneak past the Phillies in seven spectacular games. It will be Philadelphia, not Chicago, that chokes it away in the final home game. Look for the suspect bullpen to be the culprit.
Jason Marquis and Ted Lilly will surprise people like Jeff Weaver and Anthony Reyes a year ago ... Wait. I'm getting ahead of myself.
Just say Cubs in 7.
ALCS, Indians vs. Red Sox
Again, the Sox are the best team in the AL, and even better in a seven game series. Sabathia and Carmona will keep the Indians in it, but they can't outduel Beckett and Daisuke in every game. And the back end of the Sox rotation will be the difference. Schilling and Wakefield are postseason stars, even if they are getting old. I think one or both of them will be great in these playoffs, and the offense is good enough to overcome their mediocre performances.
Indians are a very good team, but the Sox are better.
Sox in 5.

Which brings me to..... the matchup everyone wanted ... in 2003.

Too bad the Sox won in 2004, cause otherwise this would really mean something. These two battled for loser supremacy for years. Curse vs. Curse. Loyal, but self-loathing fan bases not knowing how to react to the thought of actually winning.
And then the Sox won.
OK, I gotta explain something here.
Red Sox in 2004, hadn't won since 1918.
White Sox in 2005, hadn't won since 1917.
2006- I said at the start (remember those baseball gods) that it was clearly the Cubs (no wins since 1908) year. I said it, as many of you know, as a diehard Cardinals fan since the age of seven. I hate the Cubs. I pity them. But then I go right back to hating them. Yet I was sure they were SUPPOSED to win it.
And then, for whatever reason, fate intervened on my behalf to get me a World Series win.
Only thing was, the Cubs were supposed to win last year. I could be paying a price for this for a long time.
The Yankees are now cursed. They are the Red Sox/ White Sox/ and soon enough the Cubs of this century.
And that can only mean that those Cubs have to win NOW. The time has come. I can't even defend this pick any other way. In every conceivable way the Red Sox are the best team, and infinitely better than any of the NL contenders.
BUT...
CUBS IN 6!

OK. You heard it here first. I'm letting you know. Kids, bet your parents extra allowance that the Cubs take home the trophy. Parents, bet the kids to cook dinner for a week that Michigan Ave. will be raining confetti at the end of the month. That is, if it's still standing. A cow once started a fire that completely destroyed the city. Imagine what Cubs fans can do.

At least don't say I didn't warn you.

week 3 in review

I had a much better week this time around, but I really missed on a pair of games.
It appears it might be a bit early for those in Wethersfield and Farmington to be punching playoff tickets. I really thought both teams would at least contend in their games. Hopefully these losses will be more of an anomaly as the season goes on.
I got to see New Britain running back B.J. Aponte up close for the first time this weekend, and I was impressed. He's a powerful back who attacks the smallest of holes, and also stays on his feet even with two defenders trying to take him down.
I also really liked what I saw from young quarterback Rafal Garcarz. He has a lot of room to grow in the next couple years, and the foundation is there.
But if New Britain keeps gathering penalties, the Hurricanes won't hang with true contenders.

Speaking of contenders, don't make Berlin angry. They were reported to have been irked by pregame comments from a Plainville player, and the game ended up far less competitive than most expected.
Also in the NWC, I continue to be shocked at the dropoff from East Catholic. Two weeks in a row they were pushed around. Hopefully it gave Rocky Hill some confidence before arguably their toughest task of the season in Northwest Catholic next Saturday.
No problems for Newington on the road. The easy wins keep piling up.
Same goes for Southington. It's too bad those two don't meet up on the schedule.

Three weeks down, and four locals still unbeaten. That's significant for any team at this point in the season.

My records: This week 6-2, overall 15-8, highlighted state picks 2-1.

monday

I'll be at the New Britain vs. Newington volleyball match this evening. Not sure about the rest of the week yet, but be assured I'll let you know.