week 4 preview

[BLOGGER'S NOTE: Due to a change in coverage schedules for this weekend, I have removed my prediction on the Newington-Conard game. I will be covering that game on Saturday afternoon, and I do not want there to appear to be any conflict of interest in the coverage.
However, as it is an interesting matchup, I will provide some thoughts on it]

Things are starting to get much clearer, and after a muddy week 3, let's all hope things stay dry this weekend. The forecast is calling for it to be a little chilly at night, but sunny and dry during th day. So it should be good football weather, thankfully.
Of course, it will be the rare weekend where I happen not to cover any games. I'll be in the office on Friday, and while I may get out and watch a game on Saturday, I won't be reporting. Those duties will go to writers Ken Lipshez and Andrew Lovell, as well as a talented group of freelance writers.
That means I get to make picks in every local game this week, which is a bit of a treat. Let's see how things go.
Friday:
Bristol Eastern at Southington, 7 p.m.: Last year this would have been a big matchup. But the results so far this year don't look great for Eastern, but Southington keeps rolling along looking very strong against CT competition.
This is Southington's first home game, and the Knights are rested after a rainout last weekend. The fans should be into it, and the players eager to get back out there.
I expect Southington to jump all over the Lancers from the start and win this pretty easily.
South Windsor at Farmington, 7 p.m.: I know, every week the Indians seem to have an opponent among the weaker in the CCC conference. But it may be time to face up to facts. The Indians themselves are near the bottom of the conference.
I don't think South Windsor is as good as Fermi or Platt were, but they are probably better than E.O. Smith was, and I just don't see a lot of positives coming from Farmington.
I think South Windsor will win.
Weaver at New Britain, 7 p.m.: This has all the signs of being the trap game that New Britain has fallen victim to in recent years to teams like Windsor and Bloomfield. This is a good Weaver team, but certainly one the Hurricanes should beat. New Britain has to be careful not to let its early success blind it. It's still VERY early in the season.
Good teams lock down and win these games with relative ease. I don't know that New Britain does anything easily, but I will pick the 'Canes to come out on top.
Wethersfield at Manchester, 7 p.m.: The schedule gets a little bit tougher for the Eagles after East Hartford, E.O. Smith and Bulkeley, but not by much. Manchester just hasn't gotten back to the competitive level it was at a few years back.
The Eagles, like New Britain, need to make sure not to get caught up in early success. I hope the players realize they haven't beaten a good team yet, though they are capable of it.
I think Wethersfield will win this one, but it might get closer than comfort would allow, particularly on the road for the first time.
East Catholic at Berlin, 7 p.m.: Forget that after watching them I don't think anybody will beat Berlin. East Catholic isn't the team to even put up a fight.
I don't really have much more to say than I hope the Berlin fans don't mind blowouts. They will get very used to them.
Enfield at Rocky Hill, 7 p.m.: Sure, the Terriers lost to NW Catholic on Monday, and it was a heartbreaking game that they probably should have won. But the season is not lost, and the coaching staff will have to make sure they know that.
Lose to Enfield, and the playoffs will be almost definitely lost, and the Raiders are not a team to overlook. Enfield's passing attack happens to oppose one of Rocky Hill's minor weaknesses, so this won't be the best matchup for Rocky Hill.
But, I did see enough of the Terriers to know that they have a talented team. That was what made the NWC loss so difficult for them. This team can go places.
This is where they start to regroup. I'll pick them in a pretty close contest.
Saturday:
Newington at Conard, 2:30 p.m.:
This is easily the best matchup of the week. These teams will both be fighting for a playoff spot in Class L, and the loser of this game will be put in a very precarious situation in that regard.
Conard is always praised as a well-prepared team, while Newington has surprised many people so far this year.
Both are for real, and have competed very well against good competition so far. This should be a very close matchup.
In fact, there's the litmus test for it:
New Britain 24, Conard 19
New Britain 23, Newington 17
Can't get much closer than that.
Plainville at St. Paul et. al.: Who could have predicted St. Paul would be 4-0 after this week? Probably not many people.
At this point, I'll be very surprised if they aren't. The Blue Devils just need to worry about improving in practice and games each week, and hope for some bright spots to follow. I don't think wins will be coming.
St. Paul will win.
STATE PICK OF THE WEEK
Wilbur Cross at Cheshire, Saturday, 7 p.m.: At the office this week, we passed by a high school game on local TV and stopped to see who it was. It ended up being a thriller last weekend between Cheshire and Shelton, and it got us talking about how Cheshire has fallen far from the powerhouse it was in the 90s.
I think the Rams aren't as far away from being very good as their record shows lately. They are 1-2, but lost by one touchdown to a good Hamden team, and by a point in overtime to that unbeaten Shelton team.
Meanwhile, Wilbur Cross is solid again, with an overtime win against a very good small school in Hyde, a dominant win over Xavier and a win over Amity.
Both teams beat Amity, by similar scores, so this should be pretty close if you use standards like that to judge. I do.
In that case, I give the edge to Cheshire being at home, and I think it could be a spark for the team the rest of the year. I don't think either of these teams is going to be close to the playoffs in the end, but they won't be easy wins for anybody on their schedule.

Bring on October

Back in March I made my predictions for the baseball season, and very unscientifically even guessed at win totals for all 30 MLB teams, without adding up to see if those numbers were even possible until afterwards.
Well, now it's time to bite the bullet and go back and see how I did. And this is the first time I've looked at the numbers since making those picks, so this should be fun.
Let's see how many games off I was for every team.
Team ..............actual finish......predicted.................difference
AL East
Tampa Bay ..97 wins............84 (3rd place)...........13 games
Boston...........95.....................98 (1st)......................3
New York.....89.....................93 (2nd).....................4
Toronto ........86....................82 (4th)......................4
Baltimore......68....................66 (5th)......................2
AL Central
Chicago.........88.....................87 (3rd)......................1
Minnesota....88.....................75 (4th).....................13
Cleveland......81 ....................95 (1st)......................14
Kansas City..75.....................68 (5th)....................... 7
Detroit..........74......................94 (2nd).....................20
AL West
L.A..............100......................92 (1st)..................... 8
Texas...........79.......................77 (3rd)......................2
Oakland.......75.......................72 (4th)......................3
Seattle..........61......................90 (2nd)...................29
NL East
Philadelphia.92......................91 (2nd)....................1
New York.....89.....................94 (1st)......................5
Florida..........84......................64 (5th)..................20
Atlanta.........72.......................86 (3rd)..................14
Washington..59......................82 (4th)..................23
NL Central
Chicago.........97......................89 (1st)....................8
Milwaukee...90......................84 (3rd)...................6
Houston........86......................73 (5th).................13
St. Louis........86......................87 (2nd)..................1
Cincinnati......74......................78 (4th)..................4
Pittsburgh....67.......................70 (6th).................3
NL West
LA Dodgers..84.....................90 (2nd)..................6
Arizona.........82.....................95 (1st)..................13
Colorado.......74.....................86 (3rd).................12
San Francisco.72..................68 (5th)...................4
San Diego.....63.....................85 (4th).................22


Whew! I'm glad that's over. I forgot some of those picks (Washington 82 wins!, San Diego 85 wins!). As you can see, I did very well on some things, and very bad on others. I did not foresee Tampa being this good, but I thought they would be competitive. I had a hunch that pre-season favorites like Detroit, Seattle and Colorado would not be quite that good, but in the case of the first two, I never imagined they would be that bad.
I also had a hunch on the White Sox, as I wrote. And I'm proud to say I was only one game off on my Cardinals, who surprised just about everybody else with their 86-win year.
Now, as for the bad, Washington was a very dark horse pick to get that high, and in retrospect I was dead wrong. San Diego struggled with injuries such as Chris Young missing over half the season and nobody could have foreseen Jake Peavy struggling like he did. That's just part of what makes this so interesting.
I got two division winners correct, two other eventual winners were my pick to finish second and two other winners I picked to finish third. That's not too bad. Of course, Cleveland, my pick to win the AL Central, finished far behind in third, and Arizona, which I thought was the best the NL had to offer, finished with only 82 wins.
I am not at all surprised that one division I was very close on was the NL Central, missing by only an average of fewer than six games per team. I follow that division like a hawk.
Being in New England, I was also very close on the AL East, missing by a mere 5.2 games per team, most of that a 13-game gap when the Rays exceeded any kind of expectation. I missed the other four teams by a miniscule 3.25 games each. I'm proud of that.
I was surprisingly closer on my AL predictins (8.64 games off per team) than NL (9.68 games per team). Overall I missed by an average of 9.26 games. It's hard for me to say if that's good or not, with nobody else to compare to, but with the unpredictability of a long baseball season, I'd say its not too bad.



AND NOW... FOLLOWING THAT PERFORMANCE... I AM COMPELLED TO GIVE YOU MORE PREDICTIONS GUARANTEED TO BE PARTIALLY TRUE
Time to predict the 2008 playoffs
American League
Chicago at Tampa Bay: I love Ozzie Guillen. I don't know what he's doing most of the time as a manager, but it somehow seems to work more than it doesn't. Well, his team came up with some clutch wins Monday and Tuesday, and that reminds me at least a little of last year's Colorado team.
On the other hand, Tampa is the real deal, and one of the more complete teams in these playoffs, particularly with Longoria back and if Percival can stay healthy.
One thing that worries me about the Rays is their imbalanced home and road record. They rely a lot on The Trop to win, and one slipup there in the playoffs could hurt them a lot. Consistency wins this time of year.
But, overall, I just think Tampa is a significantly better team than Chicago, more rested, better equipped to handle pitching matchups, and of course, they do have home field.
Prediction: Tampa Bay in four
Boston at L.A. Angels: At the beginning of the season, I thought the Sox were the best team in baseball, but it's been quite an up-and-down ride. No more Manny, but Jason Bay is about as good a replacement as they were going to find. A battered Josh Beckett not pitching until game three. Next to nothing from wunderkind Clay Bucholz, and likely an end to Schilling's career.
But here the Sox are, with Daisuke improving from last year as predicted, Lester suddenly a star and Pedroia the favorite to win the MVP.
On the other hand we have the definition of consistency in the Angels. After Vlad, how many guys in their lineup can you name. But they are all solid players, and if Garrett Anderson is healthy and gets hot he can be a series changer.
Plus their pitching always surprises, and they have that lights-out closer (of course, so do the Sox most of the time).
This one is tough. Something is still making me lean toward Boston. I think it's that deep down I think the Sox have more talent. This should come down to a couple things though, that don't favor the Sox:
1. Lester's youth
2. Beckett's spot in the rotation
3. No Manny
Lester was great this year, but I'm not sold he'll be unhittable as he might need to be in the pressure of October. I think he'll pitch well, but can he win a 2-1 game if needed.
Beckett will only get to pitch once, and how will that go coming off an injury.
And while Manny could tear apart a team over the haul of a season, and getting rid of him was absolutely the right move, the Sox will miss having that kind of an impact player now, when every at bat becomes critical.
Prediction: Los Angeles in five
ALCS, Tampa Bay at Los Angeles: What a strange matchup this would be, and many think that it would garner no TV ratings. But I have a feeling that fans will follow Tampa for the novelty of the team.
I can't think of two more balanced teams. Their pitching staffs look almost identical: no huge names, but guys who can pitch a shutout going every game.
The lineups have a few stars, but only one superstar (Guerrero). Still, they play smart, fundamental baseball.
It's Tampa's youth against L.A.'s experience. Usually experience wins, but this Tampa team is very similar to Detroit in '06, Chicago in '05 and yes, Anaheim in '02. Things have just seemed to go their way most of the year.
Prediction: Tampa Bay in six
National League
Milwaukee at Philadelphia: Before I begin, I must say that you couldn't hand-pick a batch of teams I root against more than this year's NL crop. I have nobody to root for. It will be painful.
That said, they are some pretty good teams, but mostly flawed.
These two are very flawed. They both strike me as incredibly immature squads, who tend to think they have earned respect that they don't deserve yet. Each of these teams acts like they are the best, but they've never proven it.
Both rely on the home run, have very inconsistent starting pitching at this point, and are impatient at the plate and error-prone in the field. This series will be all about who steps up with a big play, and I expect to see many of them.
In that regard, I like Philly's stars, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins, a LOT more than Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder.
I also like Philly because of Brad Lidge, who has been lights-out again this year, although he has a history of blemishes at the wrong time.
The one thing that would have made me say Milwaukee could win this is C.C. Sabathia, but after working him into the ground the last two weeks, I don't know that he can take anymore, and he has a history of bad playoff games as well. With Ben Sheets a big question mark due to injuries in September, things look bad for Milwaukee. But Philly won't run away with it either.
Prediction: Philadelphia in four
Los Angeles at Chicago: There is no question that the Cubs are the best team in the NL, and I don't think it's even close. Their pitching staff is unreal, particularly when weak-link Jason Marquis doesn't have to pitch. Their lineup is dangerous top-to-bottom, and their manager is one of the best.
Only the Cubs bullpen, and 100 years of history, can keep them from the World Series.
Los Angeles is a trendy pick because of Manny, but I just don't think the Dodgers team is good enough for him to make a difference. They have, at best, only one pitcher that I would guarantee a good performance from, and I'm not even sure I can say that about Derek Lowe. In fact, Chad Billingsley may be their top guy. Maddux is not the same pitcher he used to be.
Every postseason the team that wins is the one that has role players make big contributions, guys not expected to do so. The Cubs have more of those guys than anybody else, like Geovany Soto, Kosuke Fukudome, Jim Edmonds, Ryan Theriot and Mark DeRosa to go along with stars Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez
Prediction: Cubs in three
NLCS, Philadelphia at Chicago: I definitely don't think Philly can stump the Cubs in a 7-game series. Pitching depth will wear them down, along with immaturity. I expect the Phils to suffer a huge hangover after celebrating their win in the first series. It's been their M.O. for several years. Every time they achieve something, they think they've won it all, and suddenly they are sent home.
I think we will see that again.
Prediction: Chicago in five
WORLD SERIES
Chicago at Tampa Bay: Damn that All-Star game if you're a Cubs fan. 14 innings gave the Rays four home games, and how crucial are those going to be.
Last year, I predicted the Cubs would win when the playoffs began, ending a 99-year drought. This year, I'm not so sure. If I pick them to win, I'm sure they won't, and as a Cardinals fan I should probably do that.
But I can't pick them to win two years in a row and look stupid, and besides, I just think Tampa's going to get it done somehow.
I don't know if the curse will take over. I don't know how Tampa will win. I can't believe I'm not hedging my bets by picking the Cubs to win, thereby balancing out how upset I would be if they did.
Prediction: Tampa Bay in six, and Lord help me if the Cubs actually win because of this

week 3 in review

Rain made for one of the more unpleasant "weekends" of football I can remember, and not just because of rainy nights at the game and poor field conditions. Football just should not be played on Monday and Tuesday, as it was in two local cases this week, and then, there were those messy conditions.
My picks were still pretty solid, though. I went 4-1, with one game postponed to November, incorrectly guessing only the Plainville-RHAM game. I guess it's back to the drawing board for the Blue Devils after a really tough loss to swallow. This just won't be Plainville's year.
A couple notes from this week:
It was a very disappointing loss for Rocky Hill at Northwest on Monday. First off, I felt that the Terriers were the better, more talented team. They were outplayed that day though, picking up many costly penalties, turning it over five times and failing to get its running game going.
Granted, the referees were questionable to say the least. And the field condition, as it usually is at Northwest, was bad. But this team needed a win there, and hurt its playoff chances greatly in a year I think they have a legitimate shot to get back there.
I do ask the question to anybody who can answer it as to why Rocky Hill had to play at Northwest in consecutive years, not to mention they will play at Middletown for a second straight year. That means the Terriers will play the three traditional powers of the Nutmeg League, along with Berlin, on the road this year. That's simply unfair.
As for Berlin, good luck Nutmeg. It is becoming more and more clear that Berlin is easily the best team in this conference, and if they play like they did in dismantling Middletown, they will take home their first state title.
Nice win for Newington, another team proving that it will be tough this year. I think the Indians have their toughest remaining game coming up, but I'll save that for next week's preview.
Some stars from this week:
Kaiuway Boima, New Britain: Went crazy in the second half with five touchdowns.
Mike Mancini, Rocky Hill: Quietly had a very nice day punting, with two fumble recoveries and defensively.
The entire Berlin offensive line: I've never seen such a dominant performance against an allegedly good team.
The week brings my overall record this year to 15-5, 2-1 in non-local picks.