week 5 picks

I'm really sorry to be so late with these, just a few hours before game time. My cable internet unexpectedly quit on me last night, and I couldn't access anything.
So without further ado, I give you my thoughts on this week's local football games. I'll be covering Windsor at Wethersfield on Saturday afternoon, so no call on that one.
Friday:
New Britain at East Hartford: The Hurricanes seem to be rolling along again after their loss to Windsor three weeks ago. East Hartford has some weapons, and nearly pulled off a miraculous win at the end against Wethersfield last week. But the New Britain offense, if it stays penalty free, is FAR too good for the Hornets to handle, and the New Britain defense, sparked by some younger guys stepping in, is solid too.
New Britain should win easily.
Newington at Bulkeley: I've seen Bulkeley play, and I can say the Bulldogs will not be able to stop the Newington rushing attack. Newington will win easily, unless the Indians forget to show up. Pagan, Leupold and company will keep rolling along.
Farmington at Berlin: Farmington's big win over East Catholic looks less and less impressive every week, and Berlin seems to clearly be the class of the Nutmeg, despite a relatively close call against Enfield. In fact, that says a lot about these Redcoats. They won by a mere 13 points on the road and it seemed shockingly close.
Can anybody trip up Capodice's bunch? Not this week. Berlin wins easily, and I sense a pattern for the whole weekend.
Saturday:
Southington at Simsbury: Simsbury may be the best 0-4 team in the state, having played a very tough schedule so far, and been close against Conard and Maloney. Their schedule doesn't get any easier here, as the Knights defense was as good as any I've seen against Rockville a week ago.
Southington quarterback Elliott Turek is still learning the position, but he puts a lot of balls on the mark that are mishandled by his receivers. Unlike against Rockville, I would guess the Knights can get Savino Melluzzo running, and win again. Southington doesn't have the hardest schedule in the CCC, but three years in a row undefeated would be impressive nonetheless. Still too early to talk about that.
Enfield at SP/GT/LM: The Raiders must have had things going offensively against Berlin to put up 34 points. They must have some weapons in general.
Meanwhile, St. Paul earned the first win for the school this fall last week ... in any sport. Enfield will put an end to the Falcons hot streak.
Plainville at East Catholic: I've said enough about the Eagles struggles over the past few weeks. And Plainville is past the majority of its toughest games (although Rocky Hill and NWC still remain). The Blue Devils should be able to get a little momentum going and win this one.
Rocky Hill at Middletown: This appears to be the only competitive game on the schedule this week (but that's why they play the games on the field, not on paper). Each year people around the Nutmeg suggest that the Terriers could have trouble handling the Dragons speed and athleticism, and for the past two seasons Rocky Hill has rolled over the opponent nonetheless. Rocky Hill is thinking playoffs again, and after a big win at Northwest Catholic, it is well within reach. This is arguably the most critical game remaining for them. While they are a favorite in this one, they will not be against Berlin in two weeks. The Terriers can't slip up here.
I think Rocky Hill's offense, led by Dan Carducci, will be sharp as it has been the last two years, and will win this one to close out the first half of the season undefeated.
State pick of the week:
Weaver at Conard, Saturday, 1 p.m.: Neither of these teams are on the state radar, but both are very good and undefeated, so we'll stay somewhat local with this game. Conard has not fed on weak competition yet, either, with a big win over Maloney last week (even if the Spartans aren't nearly as good as last year).
Weaver has not only won, it handled a couple of weaker opponents (Bulkeley, Platt) for two weeks before a bye week.
Both of these teams are probably looking at a potential playoff spot, but if that's going to happen to either, it will have to be whoever wins this game. Their schedules just get much tougher as the season goes on.
Conard's at home, and I think the Chieftains should take this one.

So that's it. Interesting trend locally. At this point in the season I would argue that the three best local offensive players are all at the running back position: Nate Pagan (Newington), B.J. Aponte (New Britain) and Dan Carducci (Rocky Hill). There are also a number of other really good backs like Melluzzo (Southington), Dave Soltis (Plainville), Jack Cooper (Berlin) and Tebucky Jones, Jr. (Farmington). Maybe it just seems that way because rushing dominates the high school game and guys like Jim Connolly at Berlin don't get as many chances to show off what they can do with their arms. But rushing does dominate, and these guys explain why local teams have had so much success so far.

My records: Overall 21-10, 3-1 in state games.

new, improved playoff picks

I never said I was perfect. I merely implied it.
With that in mind, I would like to revise my National League playoff picks. Things didn't go exactly right.
I am amused that every series I thought would go long was a sweep and the one I thought would be a sweep lasted an extra-long fourth game. I am still trying to figure out how the Cubs lost. I mean, the baseball gods must really have it in for them. Maybe they just like round numbers, like 100, the number of years it will have been since the Cubs last won a World Series when spring training rolls around. Say it with me Cubs fans. "Wait til next year!"
Now that I have that out of my system, on to the LCS. I don't care what anybody says. The team name on the jersey doesn't matter this time of year. I don't care that the Mets, Cubs, Braves, Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers or Giants, more storied franchises, aren't there (well, all except the Cardinals). The team with the best record in the league is there, and the hottest team on the planet as well. If the Rockies played the Patriots right now they'd probably win. I don't think they even remember what it is like to lose a game.
But, they're going to find out in Game 1 when Brandon Webb shuts them down. Jeff Francis is a nice pitcher, but he's not Webb.
I do wonder how the Diamondbacks have done so well this year despite being outscored. That is one of the strangest stats in baseball history. But give credit to a team that sniffs a win and grabs it. If they are in the game, you expect them to win it somehow at the end.
Colorado has the better lineup here, and not just because of Coors. Holliday, Tulowitzki, Helton and Hawpe are all solid to MVP-caliber players. Arizona's best bat is Eric Byrnes, a very fun player and one I would love to have on my team, but not a star by any stretch. Stephen Drew is on fire right now, but not a guarantee to hit.
Neither team has a great rotation after the first couple guys. The bullpens are solid, but something has to give before we get there.
And that something is Brandon Webb. I know, he can only pitch in three games at most, and if Bob Melvin is smart will only throw twice. (I've always been opposed to pitching guys on short rest in the postseason. Eric Wedge, good decision, Joe Torre, very, very bad.) But a team has to like its chances with the best player in this series on the mound for them.
I think Arizona will win both of Webb's starts, get a narrow win somewhere else and get at least one great performance from the trio of Doug Davis, Livan Hernandez and Micah Owings, inconsistently very good pitchers.
Arizons wins this one in six games, and hopefully for the fans they will be a lot of fun to watch.
I'm going to stick with my previous Red Sox prediction in the AL, seeing as both the previous series went just about as I expected. However, this leads me to a realization. That would set up a WS matchup of Red Sox (2004 champs) and Diamondbacks (2001 champs). Along with my other crackpot theories (Yankees still seem cursed to me), I have another that we will not see a repeat champion this decade. That means I'm going to get at least one of these series wrong. And therefore, whichever team wins that one, will have to win the World Series as well.
Illogical, I know. But so is baseball.

great soccer action

I just saw a very good boys soccer game between two very good teams. I say "teams" in every sense of the word.
While both Bristol Central and Wethersfield have several very good players, neither seems to have that standout player that leaps out at you. But they play together. One of the game officials commented to me during a long injury timeout late in the game that neither team wasted time on the field complaining to officials or fighting amongst itself. They were there for soccer alone.
Wethersfield coach Rob Jachym was disappointed in the way his team played having just earned the number-one ranking in the state coaches poll. But it is very hard to go undefeated for a full season, and it is better that the loss comes now rather than later.
"I’ll be interested to see how they come back and respond on Friday against E.O. Smith," Jachym said. "They will show what kind of character this team is made of."
I like what the Eagles are made of after seeing them for a second time this year against a much better team (it was Newington the first time around). I also really like Bristol Central, which has won six of its last seven after tying the first three of the year. The team has no losses yet, an accomplishment in itself halfway through the year.
I hope Central forward Rob Eschner didn't hurt himself too badly after a hard collision with Wethersfield defender Gustavo Perez late in the game. But unfortunately, a broken leg looked likely.
I've known Perez for a long time, and I'm sure he feels bad about it. It was just another example of two players fighting for every inch in a crucial game and sometimes injuries happen.
Great job by both teams all around, though.

week 4 in review

I bounced back with a 6-2 week, and I couldn't be happier about one of the two I got wrong.
What a week!
Speaking of bouncing back, Wethersfield needed a good performance after getting handled by Bristol Eastern, especially with its schedule about to get a lot tougher for the rest of the year. The Eagles got it was a thrilling win over East Hartford, one of three exceptional games on the schedule for local teams.
Contrary to my prediction, the Rocky Hill Terriers got what could prove to be a defining win, 13-7 over a very strong Northwest Catholic team. With two losses NWC is likely out of the Class S playoffs, and the 4-0 Terriers are the top candidate to slide into their spot along with powers like Ansonia.
Rocky Hill must be careful not to slip up against teams like Middletown, Enfield, Plainville and Farmington, all who are capable of winning if the opponent is unprepared. Hopefully RH won't be looking ahead to its matchup with Berlin in a couple weeks. Middletown this coming week is also unbeaten and in contention for the conference title.
Meanwhile, Newington got a big win, also sending Class S Bloomfield to its second loss. That's two of the top 5 S teams from a year ago likely knocked out of the mix already. And it puts Newington (4-0) among a shrinking group of unbeatens in Class L, with a strong win to boot.
More coasting for New Britain and Southington. The Hurricanes look to have ironed out some of their problems, and if they don't get complacent will still be a threat to make the LL playoffs.
Meanwhile, fans in Southington might be a bit confused to see their team thriving on defense, but that is clearly the case. Coach Mella has discovered what many have before him that the best way to create a dynasty is to coach defense. Offensive talent comes and goes, but defense is all hard work, preparation, play calling and athleticism. At a school the size of SHS there is always athleticism around.

Last week: 6-2. Overall record: 21-10, 3-1 in state picks.