some updates

OK, so a lot happened on Wednesday night, clearing up the playoff situation. Locally, Southington and New Britain are out, no chance of making the playoffs. Conversely, Rocky Hill is in. What was a 99% chance before is now 100%.
Newington should know now that a win against Wethersfield clinches their playoff berth as well. There is no grey area there. But there is no chance of the Indians getting a home game.
As for Rocky Hill, the Terriers can get a home game in a few ways, possibly even the top seed although that would be very unlikely. To get any home game Rocky Hill will need wins from five of the six teams it beat that still have games. In fact, it's a specific five teams for reasons that are complicated but I'll try to explain.
Rocky Hill needs: Middletown over Xavier, Stonington over Westerly (RI), Prince Tech over Capital Prep, Enfield over Fermi, and RHAM over Bacon Academy. I'd actually give them the edge in four of those. Prince, Stonington and Enfield all seem like solid bets to me. RHAM/Bacon sounds like a complete tossup. And Middletown would be a big upset win.
Here's the interesting part. There is another game, Plainville at NW Catholic, that on paper would seem to help Rocky Hill. The problem is, if Plainville wins that, or rather Northwest loses it, without all the others happening as well, then Rocky Hill would not win the tiebreaker against Seymour and would end up at best in a tie. The win for Northwest actually helps Rocky Hill in the tiebreaker.
Rocky Hill would still also need Ansonia to beat Naugatuck, which seems like a pretty good bet. If Naugy won, RH would need all six of its games to come through. Those are the only ways they can pass Seymour.
As for passing New London, they would first of all need the Whalers to lose to NFA. Then they would need to get more bonus points than them. New London is guaranteed one win from the Plainfield-Griswold matchup having beaten both. They also will be looking to get Waterford over East Lyme, Fitch over Ledyard, Windham over E.O. Smith, and the kicker, Bacon Academy over RHAM. Windham is a near lock against E.O., but Fitch is very unlikely to beat Ledyard. Waterford is probably a slight favorite to beat East Lyme. Which means if things go as expected, New London would have three wins to match the three I think Rocky Hill gets easily. If New London in fact loses, the RHAM-Bacon game could determine which team, New London or Rocky Hill, finishes ahead of the other, and possibly who gets home field in a matchup between them. But a New London win makes this all a moot point.

There were some big upsets tonight. I was shocked to see Montville lose, and a little surprised by Hyde's win over North Branford, which seems to have knocked Northwest Catholic out of the playoff race. Masuk made easy work of Newtown and while a Masuk win isn't surprising, the manner in which they did it makes them look like a clear Class L favorite, and maybe the clearest favorite in any division.


A THANKSGIVING NOTE:
As I wrote in my blog last year, Thanksgiving is a day on which I try to make phone calls to all the people who have been important in my life in a positive way over the past 12 months. For whatever reason, Thanksgiving seems the best time to do this, not New Year's Day, or Christmas or any other holiday.
As always, I have made it through the year on the strength of my friends and family, and those truly close to me continue to show themselves more and more.
I urge all of you to really consider where you might be without the important people in your life, and also where they might be without you. There's no shame in admitting we're all in this together, and that nobody can go it alone.
Happy Thanksgiving, everybody! Enjoy the turkey, the football and the smiles.
And keep your phone on in case I call you.

Thanksgiving week preview

This is a big week, and there are a ton of big games around the state, so I'm going to do this a little differently.
It's a pick bonanza, as I will be making quick picks (no explanation) on many games around the state with playoff implications or which otherwise strike me as interesting.
I'll also be doing local picks as usual, with a couple of exceptions. I am a couple hours away from going to see Rocky Hill host Nonnewaug, and it's fair to say the Terriers should clinch a playoff berth. I'll also be at Wethersfield-Newington tomorrow, and that ones up in the air. I'm going to enjoy that.
As for Rocky Hill, the Terriers hopes at a home game were likely dashed last week by losses for Berlin, RHAM and Plainville, all games that might have gone the other way to help Rocky Hill. It looks like Dave Coyne's bunch will have to face either Seymour or New London on the road next week.
As for Newington-Wethersfield, just get out to this one if you live in one of those towns. This could be a classic, and the team's are about as evenly matched as they have been in a long time. Newington's better, and with reason has a chance at a playoff berth.

OK, on with the picks.
Wednesday:
Cheshire at Southington, 6 p.m.: If the Knights win they will have a very good shot at the playoffs. Lose and it's all over. Southington needs to root against New Britain, which shouldn't be hard for them to wrap their heads and hearts around.
Then they need to go out and beat a very good Cheshire team, which coincidentally is also playing for the playoffs.
I have no doubt that Southington remembers last year, but this is a little bit different team. I'm not sure the Knights have the firepower to stay with the top teams this year, and I'm thinking Cheshire will be celebrating a win, but not necessarily a playoff spot...
BECAUSE
Glastonbury at New Britain, 7 p.m.: If the Hurricanes win they will have the advantage of Cheshire, assuming that two teams among Hillhouse, Hamden, Lyman Hall, Guilford, Newington, Bloomfield, and Rockville win.
First things first, the 'Canes have to do what nobody else has and knock off the Tomahawks. Glastonbury has played the best of any team in the CCC this season, but I still say New Britain has more in the way of pure talent. If New Britain comes out and plays its best, it can definitely win this game. But that hasn't happened consistently for several years.
Meanwhile, Glastonbury is in either way, and could either A) take the game lightly, or B) feel the pressure to go undefeated and beat a team they haven't come close to in recent years.
I've got a hunch that New Britain will be celebrating a playoff spot by night's end, or watching scores tomorrow to find out for sure.
Thursday:
Plainville at NW Catholic, 10:30 a.m.: Sadly, this one won't be close, although a miracle upset could greatly help Rocky Hill's slim chances at a home game. Don't count on that happening. The Blue Devils are down to just over one full string of players and Northwest can make the playoffs with a win and a Hyde loss to North Branford.

And that brings me to the rest of the state. I wish I could see some of these games. This should be an exciting couple of days. Here's the quick rundown of my picks.
South Windsor at Rockville: South Windsor
Manchester at East Hartford: Manchester
Windsor at Bloomfield: Windsor
Montville at St. Bernard: Montville
Seymour at Woodland: Seymour
Hyde Leadership at North Branford: North Branford
Masuk at Newtown: Newtown
Stratford at Bunnell: Bunnell
SMSA at Bulkeley (matters only to Newington's playoff chances ironically): Bulkeley
Bristol Eastern at Bristol Central: Eastern
Platt at Maloney: Platt
Weaver at Hartford Public: Weaver
Ledyard at Fitch: Ledyard
NFA at New London: New London
Darien at New Canaan: New Canaan
Staples at Greenwich: Staples
Wolcott at Holy Cross: Wolcott
Kennedy at Crosby: Crosby
Naugatuck at Ansonia: Ansonia
Hillhouse at Wilbur Cross: Hillhouse
ND-West Haven at Hamden: Hamden
Bethel at Brookfield: Brookfield
Bacon Academy at RHAM: RHAM
Fermi at Enfield: Enfield
Middletown at Xavier: Xavier
Stonington at Westerly (RI): Stonington