Well, it all comes down to this. In two days the playoff spots will be decided, and some teams will go home disappointed. Berlin and Southington know they will be playing next week. Newington and Rocky Hill still have hope, and both quite legitimately. But they need help ... and to take care of their own business.
I got two out of three games right last week, only missing on what was a very disappointing end to the season for New Britain. That was not the right way for the seniors to go out, losing two in a row, getting shut out at home, and having multiple players suspended for the last game. 7-3 is a good record, but that team did not live up to the potential it had.
I will be at Rocky Hill on Thursday morning, hoping to see the Terriers make the playoffs for a second time in three seasons. But they'll need help from Plainville, which faces Northwest Catholic. Should Rocky Hill and Plainville both win, it will come down to a few points to determine if RH or Hyde gets in. This is exciting stuff.
For the record, my mark is 50-18 going into the last few games, and I am 7-3 in my featured games from around the state.
Thursday, Thanksgiving morning:
Newington at Wethersfield: This is a long-standing tradition, and it seems that regardless of the quality of the teams, the games are usually competitive. In fact, the underdog has won many times.
This year it is a more balanced matchup than the past few, as Wethersfield improved dramatically. But the Eagles seemed to peak early, and this one matters for Newington, which needs a win and some help to make the L playoffs.
Two years ago Newington was in the same position, and made it a moot point by losing to the Eagles. This year, I just don't see anybody stopping Nate Pagan if the weather holds up, and on the turf field, I don't think it will matter regardless.
I'm picking Newington.
Southington at Cheshire: The Blue Knights should be able to wrap up the top spot in Class LL, and a third straight undefeated regular season. But don't sleep on the Rams. They've won four of five and have played a brutal schedule this year.
Still, Mella's group seems to always be focused and well coached, and home field is still on the line. Don't underestimate the importance of that. Southington wins.
Wilcox Tech at SP/GT/LM: Rumor has it Lewis Mills is leaving the co-op after this season, but don't expect that to have much effect.
Oddly enough, this game does have playoff implications, as Rocky Hill could get a much needed 10 points if the Falcons and Friends win. Wilcox has a 5-4 record but already lost to Farmington in the Nutmeg this year.
This one should be close, but my bet is that St. Paul comes out on top, barely.
Northwest Catholic at Plainville: Here it comes. The shocker pick of the season.
If Northwest wins this, they will be in the S playoffs. If they lose, they're out, and either RH or Hyde is in. They've been arguably the best team in the Nutmeg all year and have the most feared defensive player in the league in Mike Golic, Jr.
But the Indians are banged up, reportedly down to their third or fourth string quarterback and reluctant to use starting running back Dean Spence, although he is expected to suit up.
On top of that, it is the final game for Plainville back David Soltis, who is as fiery on the field as they come. Add to it all the close losses Plainville has suffered, to Middletown, Rocky Hill and Enfield in particular, and the Blue Devils will be out for blood in their final game.
I just have a feeling Plainville will pull off the upset. And if that happens, I wouldn't be surprised to see Rocky Hill coach Dave Coyne carving the turkey at Plainville coach Scot Wenzel's house.
C'mon Devils! Get it done!
STATE GAME OF THE WEEK
Newtown at Masuk, Wednesday, 7 p.m.: This game has the biggest local implications of any as a Newtown win would open the door wide for Newington. If Masuk wins, the odds of Newington getting everything else it needs to go its way are slim.
Masuk is 8-1, Newtown is 7-2. The teams played six teams in common and had identical 5-1 records against them, both losing to Bunnell.
But in those games, Masuk's margin of victory was better in five of six cases, often significantly. And Masuk is the home team here.
The numbers can lie, but they're all pointing to Masuk. And unfortunately, it means Newington is an underdog to make the playoffs.
Anything can happen, but I'm picking Masuk.
Nothing left to do but settle it on the field. I will be back to preview the playoffs this weekend, and make my predictions for first round games.
Good luck to all teams, thanks for a great season, and enjoy the turkey.
Labels: football
