Wednesday, October 10, 2007

new, improved playoff picks

I never said I was perfect. I merely implied it.
With that in mind, I would like to revise my National League playoff picks. Things didn't go exactly right.
I am amused that every series I thought would go long was a sweep and the one I thought would be a sweep lasted an extra-long fourth game. I am still trying to figure out how the Cubs lost. I mean, the baseball gods must really have it in for them. Maybe they just like round numbers, like 100, the number of years it will have been since the Cubs last won a World Series when spring training rolls around. Say it with me Cubs fans. "Wait til next year!"
Now that I have that out of my system, on to the LCS. I don't care what anybody says. The team name on the jersey doesn't matter this time of year. I don't care that the Mets, Cubs, Braves, Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers or Giants, more storied franchises, aren't there (well, all except the Cardinals). The team with the best record in the league is there, and the hottest team on the planet as well. If the Rockies played the Patriots right now they'd probably win. I don't think they even remember what it is like to lose a game.
But, they're going to find out in Game 1 when Brandon Webb shuts them down. Jeff Francis is a nice pitcher, but he's not Webb.
I do wonder how the Diamondbacks have done so well this year despite being outscored. That is one of the strangest stats in baseball history. But give credit to a team that sniffs a win and grabs it. If they are in the game, you expect them to win it somehow at the end.
Colorado has the better lineup here, and not just because of Coors. Holliday, Tulowitzki, Helton and Hawpe are all solid to MVP-caliber players. Arizona's best bat is Eric Byrnes, a very fun player and one I would love to have on my team, but not a star by any stretch. Stephen Drew is on fire right now, but not a guarantee to hit.
Neither team has a great rotation after the first couple guys. The bullpens are solid, but something has to give before we get there.
And that something is Brandon Webb. I know, he can only pitch in three games at most, and if Bob Melvin is smart will only throw twice. (I've always been opposed to pitching guys on short rest in the postseason. Eric Wedge, good decision, Joe Torre, very, very bad.) But a team has to like its chances with the best player in this series on the mound for them.
I think Arizona will win both of Webb's starts, get a narrow win somewhere else and get at least one great performance from the trio of Doug Davis, Livan Hernandez and Micah Owings, inconsistently very good pitchers.
Arizons wins this one in six games, and hopefully for the fans they will be a lot of fun to watch.
I'm going to stick with my previous Red Sox prediction in the AL, seeing as both the previous series went just about as I expected. However, this leads me to a realization. That would set up a WS matchup of Red Sox (2004 champs) and Diamondbacks (2001 champs). Along with my other crackpot theories (Yankees still seem cursed to me), I have another that we will not see a repeat champion this decade. That means I'm going to get at least one of these series wrong. And therefore, whichever team wins that one, will have to win the World Series as well.
Illogical, I know. But so is baseball.

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