MLB playoff predictions (take 2)
Sometimes I feel happy getting things half right. The MLB playoffs are definitely one of those times.
After all, I was exactly right about the Rays and Phillies... in four games! That never happens. I was right that the Red Sox-Angels series would be tight, and don't be fooled that it didn't go five games. The Angels had a lead in Game 1 and were right in it in Game 4. That easily could have gone the other way, and sports editor Matt Straub almost had three cardiac arrests during the week.
And then there were the Cubs.
OK, I won't avoid talking about it. I was wrong about the Cubs, well, sort of. I said that at some point something would stop them from winning, as always. I just had no idea it would be so early on. I never would have predicted four errors in one game, all from the infield. I never thought their entire stacked lineup would fall asleep. I never thought Huroki Kuroda and Chad Billingsley would prove to be aces when it mattered most. So, I was wrong about that.
Time to regroup and go at this again. And I love both of these LCS matchups. This should be exciting baseball.
ALCS, Red Sox at Rays
The sad thing is, if the Sox win this, then the Rays year, and accomplishments, will go the way of many before them. Who remembers the 2001 Mariners? They went 116-46 in the regular season, but lost the ALCS to the Yankees. And it was in New York, not Seattle, that the President threw out the opening pitch. Maybe that was just fate. But those Mariners, one of the best teams ever, are largely forgotten, and it's only seven years later.
How about the 1995 Indians? Try 100-44 in a strike-shortened regular season. But they lost to the Braves in the World Series (ironic that the one Braves team that won in the end was the one that was a huge underdog). So, your average fan doesn't remember just how good that Indians team was.
The point is, the Rays won the AL East by playing great all year long and holding off the Sox in the last two weeks of the year. But if they lose this series, it won't matter. In the end, people will remember the Red Sox as the better team (whether they were or not) and the Rays will be something for the history books only, not baseball lore.
And it could easily happen. These teams both have three VERY reliable starting pitchers, and a fourth that isn't bad in a pinch. I give the Rays the edge in that middle game, but other than that, how can you pick against any of the six guys going?
How about offense? The Red Sox sure look a lot like they did this time last year, balanced and dangerous. Who wants to pitch to Pedroia, Youkilis, or that Ortiz guy? Not to mention Jason Bay is proving he's pretty good, J.D. Drew is always dangerous and you can expect somebody else to step up eventually.
As for the Rays, they just looked very good against the White Sox, and Carlos Pena (the pride of Northeastern University) didn't hit a single homer in the series. He did bat .500 in three games.
If B.J. Upton heats up, he's a series changer. Same goes for Longoria, and Pena. That's a VERY good lineup.
There's little question that these are the two best remaining teams, and many people believe whoever wins this is taking home the World Series. That will have to wait. For now, it's going to come down to those late-game situations, that the Red Sox have been so good at during their postseason success years.
But the Rays have the much deeper bullpen, aside from the Sox advantage in postseason experience the only big edge either team has anywhere. I think that's critical, and I'm not the biggest believer in the importance of a strong pen. Strong pens don't win games. But at this point in the year, when every game is so important, they keep you from blowing one.
I hope this goes seven games. I hope they're all close. I hope Red Sox fans have 1,000 heart attacks over the next week.
And in the end, I hope their hearts are broken, if only so that the Rays get to shine. This team deserves it, and I hate seeing the kind of things that happened in 2001 and 1995 (except when it comes to last year's Patriots).
I may be picking with my heart, but I am picking Tampa in seven games.
NLCS, Dodgers at Phillies
This is weird, because entering the playoffs, I thought the Cubs were so clearly the best team in the NL that I hadn't quite considered the possibility the Dodgers would be in this series. Of course, I knew the Dodgers COULD win that series, I just never thought about what it would set up afterwards, how they would shape up for a seven-game series.
Truth be told, they shape up pretty damn good. In fact, they have the biggest edge in this series: starting pitching depth.
True, the Phillies have the best pitcher in the series in Cole Hamels, and he seems prepared to be a star this postseason, unlike his one-and-done last year. But after that, the Phils rely on soft-throwing vets, and Joe Blanton, who's not good for much this year (although Milwaukee didn't solve him). Seriously, while I respect Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer and think both are great pitchers to have over the long haul of a regular season, they aren't the type I would rely on now. The Jeff Suppans of the world, guys like that who step up in the postseason, are few and far between.
Lowe is similar, but has a proven track record. Billingsley and Kuroda are more typical ace-types, even if they aren't to that level yet.
So, if the Phils want to win, they will likely need two wins from Hamels. Then if they can get one from either Moyer or Myers somewhere, it could leave an interesting situation. The pivotal matchup in this series could be Blanton against whomever the Dodgers pitch in Game 4. Strange, isn't it. But that's the matchup that doesn't seem to have a favorite.
OK, so now we look at the lineups, and it's like the exact opposite. The Dodgers have the top gun (Manny), but the Phils (Utley, Rollins, Howard) have three legitimate stars, all of whom can change a game. That doesn't even include Shane Victorino and Pat Burrell, Victorino a clutch hitter, and Burrell typically the opposite, but still very dangerous.
L.A. has Rafael Furcal back, a key piece to its success, and Russell Martin is a very good hitter, and Andre Ethier is far better than most people realize. But the rest of their lineup is inconsistent, like James Loney, Matt Kemp and Jeff Kent. Those guys could easily go cold.
So the offensive edge seems to clearly be on Philly's side.
The bullpens feel like a moot point, but the Phils could have a bit more trouble in the middle innings if the older starters don't go deep. If it gets to Lidge, you can pretty much count it in the books, despite his postseason history.
[A note on the infamous Albert Pujols home run that allegedly destroyed Brad Lidge's postseason mindset: What people don't realize is that Lidge wasn't pitching well in that postseason before the Pujols homer in Game 5, which was a bomb of epic proportions. He gave up an earned run in Game 3, and nearly blew a save in game 4, which had the Cardinals won, they likely would have won the series. The only thing that saved him was the final play, either a spectacular double play turn by the infield, or a blown call depending on your personal point of view. Either way, if John Mabry hustles out of the box, Larry Walker scores and that game is tied. But, I'm not holding a grudge or anything.
The point is, Lidge was just off that October, in general. The Pujols homer was waiting to happen. He's not off right now.]
So that could be a minor advantage to the Dodgers, or a major one depending on the series. I would prefer to see Philly win this one. I can't root for either Joe Torre or Manny Ramirez personally, or the team that would vulture Manny when he was intentionally tanking it for his previous team for no good reason.
But the more I think about it, the more I like L.A. to win this series, particularly if that middle game goes their way or Lowe steals one from Hamels (which could easily happen). I'm going to take L.A. in six games.
Of course, what I pick usually comes true about half the time. So take the above picks with a grain of salt. I could just be trying to manipulate it to go the way I want.
But, with my luck they'll both go the way I don't want, and I'll be forced to sit through a Sox-Dodgers series.
After all, I was exactly right about the Rays and Phillies... in four games! That never happens. I was right that the Red Sox-Angels series would be tight, and don't be fooled that it didn't go five games. The Angels had a lead in Game 1 and were right in it in Game 4. That easily could have gone the other way, and sports editor Matt Straub almost had three cardiac arrests during the week.
And then there were the Cubs.
OK, I won't avoid talking about it. I was wrong about the Cubs, well, sort of. I said that at some point something would stop them from winning, as always. I just had no idea it would be so early on. I never would have predicted four errors in one game, all from the infield. I never thought their entire stacked lineup would fall asleep. I never thought Huroki Kuroda and Chad Billingsley would prove to be aces when it mattered most. So, I was wrong about that.
Time to regroup and go at this again. And I love both of these LCS matchups. This should be exciting baseball.
ALCS, Red Sox at Rays
The sad thing is, if the Sox win this, then the Rays year, and accomplishments, will go the way of many before them. Who remembers the 2001 Mariners? They went 116-46 in the regular season, but lost the ALCS to the Yankees. And it was in New York, not Seattle, that the President threw out the opening pitch. Maybe that was just fate. But those Mariners, one of the best teams ever, are largely forgotten, and it's only seven years later.
How about the 1995 Indians? Try 100-44 in a strike-shortened regular season. But they lost to the Braves in the World Series (ironic that the one Braves team that won in the end was the one that was a huge underdog). So, your average fan doesn't remember just how good that Indians team was.
The point is, the Rays won the AL East by playing great all year long and holding off the Sox in the last two weeks of the year. But if they lose this series, it won't matter. In the end, people will remember the Red Sox as the better team (whether they were or not) and the Rays will be something for the history books only, not baseball lore.
And it could easily happen. These teams both have three VERY reliable starting pitchers, and a fourth that isn't bad in a pinch. I give the Rays the edge in that middle game, but other than that, how can you pick against any of the six guys going?
How about offense? The Red Sox sure look a lot like they did this time last year, balanced and dangerous. Who wants to pitch to Pedroia, Youkilis, or that Ortiz guy? Not to mention Jason Bay is proving he's pretty good, J.D. Drew is always dangerous and you can expect somebody else to step up eventually.
As for the Rays, they just looked very good against the White Sox, and Carlos Pena (the pride of Northeastern University) didn't hit a single homer in the series. He did bat .500 in three games.
If B.J. Upton heats up, he's a series changer. Same goes for Longoria, and Pena. That's a VERY good lineup.
There's little question that these are the two best remaining teams, and many people believe whoever wins this is taking home the World Series. That will have to wait. For now, it's going to come down to those late-game situations, that the Red Sox have been so good at during their postseason success years.
But the Rays have the much deeper bullpen, aside from the Sox advantage in postseason experience the only big edge either team has anywhere. I think that's critical, and I'm not the biggest believer in the importance of a strong pen. Strong pens don't win games. But at this point in the year, when every game is so important, they keep you from blowing one.
I hope this goes seven games. I hope they're all close. I hope Red Sox fans have 1,000 heart attacks over the next week.
And in the end, I hope their hearts are broken, if only so that the Rays get to shine. This team deserves it, and I hate seeing the kind of things that happened in 2001 and 1995 (except when it comes to last year's Patriots).
I may be picking with my heart, but I am picking Tampa in seven games.
NLCS, Dodgers at Phillies
This is weird, because entering the playoffs, I thought the Cubs were so clearly the best team in the NL that I hadn't quite considered the possibility the Dodgers would be in this series. Of course, I knew the Dodgers COULD win that series, I just never thought about what it would set up afterwards, how they would shape up for a seven-game series.
Truth be told, they shape up pretty damn good. In fact, they have the biggest edge in this series: starting pitching depth.
True, the Phillies have the best pitcher in the series in Cole Hamels, and he seems prepared to be a star this postseason, unlike his one-and-done last year. But after that, the Phils rely on soft-throwing vets, and Joe Blanton, who's not good for much this year (although Milwaukee didn't solve him). Seriously, while I respect Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer and think both are great pitchers to have over the long haul of a regular season, they aren't the type I would rely on now. The Jeff Suppans of the world, guys like that who step up in the postseason, are few and far between.
Lowe is similar, but has a proven track record. Billingsley and Kuroda are more typical ace-types, even if they aren't to that level yet.
So, if the Phils want to win, they will likely need two wins from Hamels. Then if they can get one from either Moyer or Myers somewhere, it could leave an interesting situation. The pivotal matchup in this series could be Blanton against whomever the Dodgers pitch in Game 4. Strange, isn't it. But that's the matchup that doesn't seem to have a favorite.
OK, so now we look at the lineups, and it's like the exact opposite. The Dodgers have the top gun (Manny), but the Phils (Utley, Rollins, Howard) have three legitimate stars, all of whom can change a game. That doesn't even include Shane Victorino and Pat Burrell, Victorino a clutch hitter, and Burrell typically the opposite, but still very dangerous.
L.A. has Rafael Furcal back, a key piece to its success, and Russell Martin is a very good hitter, and Andre Ethier is far better than most people realize. But the rest of their lineup is inconsistent, like James Loney, Matt Kemp and Jeff Kent. Those guys could easily go cold.
So the offensive edge seems to clearly be on Philly's side.
The bullpens feel like a moot point, but the Phils could have a bit more trouble in the middle innings if the older starters don't go deep. If it gets to Lidge, you can pretty much count it in the books, despite his postseason history.
[A note on the infamous Albert Pujols home run that allegedly destroyed Brad Lidge's postseason mindset: What people don't realize is that Lidge wasn't pitching well in that postseason before the Pujols homer in Game 5, which was a bomb of epic proportions. He gave up an earned run in Game 3, and nearly blew a save in game 4, which had the Cardinals won, they likely would have won the series. The only thing that saved him was the final play, either a spectacular double play turn by the infield, or a blown call depending on your personal point of view. Either way, if John Mabry hustles out of the box, Larry Walker scores and that game is tied. But, I'm not holding a grudge or anything.
The point is, Lidge was just off that October, in general. The Pujols homer was waiting to happen. He's not off right now.]
So that could be a minor advantage to the Dodgers, or a major one depending on the series. I would prefer to see Philly win this one. I can't root for either Joe Torre or Manny Ramirez personally, or the team that would vulture Manny when he was intentionally tanking it for his previous team for no good reason.
But the more I think about it, the more I like L.A. to win this series, particularly if that middle game goes their way or Lowe steals one from Hamels (which could easily happen). I'm going to take L.A. in six games.
Of course, what I pick usually comes true about half the time. So take the above picks with a grain of salt. I could just be trying to manipulate it to go the way I want.
But, with my luck they'll both go the way I don't want, and I'll be forced to sit through a Sox-Dodgers series.
posted by Ryan Pipke at
2:35 AM
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