Tuesday, October 21, 2008

World Series preview

I don't care what anybody says. This is the matchup I want.
Who wants the Red Sox again, other than Sox fans? We've seen them. Just last year we saw them. Four years ago we saw them end the curse. It's over. The likability of the Red Sox is forever gone, and I'm not one of those people who needs a villain to make a sport interesting (not that it doesn't help sometimes).
No. I want a hero. I want something I can get caught up in even if it's not my own team. I need these Rays.
I remember 1991, when I was ten years old and learning about a new group of contenders known as the Braves. It's hard to remember that in the 1980s the Braves were the laughing-stock of MLB. Dale Murphy was about the only thing that made the team relevant, an eternally overlooked player (seriously, look up his career numbers), and for good reason. His team was terrible.
And then they became the Braves. They made it to 14 straight postseasons. They won the World Series once and got there five times.
But back in 1991 we were getting our first glimpse of them, and I can remember rooting hard for Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz and the wonder kid named Steve Avery. David Justice was a star on that team. Ron Gant breathed life back into his own middling career. It was special to see the team attempt to go from worst to first, and they nearly did it before the Twins took the Series.
So, now, 17 years later we have the Rays, another team attempting to do the same thing. No major American team has ever had the worst record in its sport one year and gone on to win its championship the next year. It's that hard to do.
And I'll be rooting for the Rays with almost everything I have.
On the other side we have the Phillies, a very talented group of players trying to end what its city feels is an overlooked history of woe. Theres some truth to that. The Phils have only one title in their 100-plus year history, which is fewer than even the Cubs. And the city hasn't won a title in any sport since 1983 (76ers).
Truth is, I just can't root for a Philadelphia team. Not if there's an alternative. Maybe it's just me, but my experience in Philly has always made me think of the fans in that city as simply miserable. They are mean on an equal-opportunity level: they boo their own team just as much as the opponents, and both loudly. They abuse fans of the visiting team. They are simply mean.
If New York fans are always criticized for their air of self-importance, they have never been as outright nasty as Philly fans can be.
I like some of these Philly players. There may not be a more important player to his team than Chase Utley. I truly enjoy watching Cole Hamels pitch. And Ryan Howard seems like a good guy and is a fun player.
But I just cannot root for this team. For me, they offer that villain.
So bring on the series.
For a good article about the series read this, by the ever-entertaining Jayson Stark.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2008/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3653757

OK, so here's my prediction and on-field thoughts.
As I said about the NLCS, the best pitcher in the series is on the Phillies. Hamels is just that good, if you haven't noticed by now. But guys like Kazmir and Shields aren't far behind for Tampa, and the Rays have far more pitching depth. Sonnanstine and Garza are legit threats to shut a team down as well, and despite the blowup in Game 5, the bullpen is very deep and very effective.
In fact, I love that the group bounced back to essentially win Game 7. I'm sure many people thought they would not recover after having their first major gaffe of the year come in a potential series-clinching game, and in overwhelming fashion. That says a ton about the makeup of the team and pitching staff in particular.
Offensively, there's a ton of young star power here. Longoria, Upton, Crawford, Pena for the Rays. Rollins, Utley, Howard, Burrell for the Phillies. Role players like Shane Victorino and Akinora Iwamura who absolutely are the glue that make championship teams.
I can't decide which offense I think is better.
But here's the kicker. Tampa's still got that goofy stadium. They had an exceptional home record this year, and with good cause. Even teams used to playing there don't adapt enough all the time. The roof can screw things up in countless ways. The noise can get bad. Even the lighting can have an effect on things, not to mention playing on an artificial surface, even field turf as opposed to old-fashioned Astroturf.
Along with the pitching staff, I expect this to give Tampa an edge. And here's the other thing. Philly needs to get wins when Hamels is on the mound. If Tampa can steal a game against him at the Trop, this series could be over quicker than expected.
So while I think certain parts of this series are pretty balanced, overall I don't think there's much question that Tampa's a stronger team top to bottom. If the Rays win the first two games, and can come out firing in Game 3 in Philly, this could be over in four.
Or, if Hamels can get his team a win early on, and the Phils can go back home even, they could force the series back to Tampa.
But I don't see that happening. I see Tampa fever sweeping the nation.
And I see the Rays winning this, their first World Series title, in five games.
What a story that would make.

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