OK. Spring is here. That means I will get out of the office and back into the field after a long winter which forced me to miss a lot of the action on the basketball court.
But, before we get to local high school stuff, I want to share my thoughts on the MLB season, and make my predictions for each team.
Now, as I did last year, I will make predictions on records for all the teams, but I will be doing this totally off the top of my head. The numbers will not add up to a possible outcome. But last season, I was relatively close on most teams, and actually quite proud of myself.
I am more excited than ever for baseball season. I think the birth of mlb.tv on the mlb.com Web site has allowed me to watch more baseball than ever, and I feel really well informed on the sport as a whole. So, with that in mind, expect my picks to be terrible. But here they are.
American League East
1. New York (95-67)- I've gone back and forth on this, and honestly, I think the top three teams in baseball are in this division. But one won't make the playoffs and another will need to win the wild card to get there. So, this is key.
The Yanks lineup is flawed, with Jeter getting old, Matsui not nearly what he used to be and Posada and Damon both reaching their final years. But, how can you beat the rotation with Sabathia, Burnett, Chamberlain, and Pettitte?
Well, the answer may be injuries, but until that happens, this is the team to beat if you ask me. They need A-Rod back desperately, but should be good when that happens. If they slip at all, they'll be caught.
2- Tie- Boston/Tampa Bay (94-68)- It's so close, let's just get a one-day playoff for the wild card. That would be fun.
The Sox's rotation looks stronger than expected. Penny is pitching well, and is healthy so far. Beckett, Daisuke and Lester are all very strong (again, if healthy. That seems to be a trend). Somebody will fill the last spot and at worst, Wakefield isn't a bad option.
The lineup post-Manny is still quite strong, though not as intimidating. Drew needs to get healthy, and I think Pedroia will come back just a bit from his MVP season. But I think Papi will pick up the slack.
As for the Rays, I can't figure out why David Price is starting the year in the minors, and if he weren't I'd probably have picked them ahead of New York. Bad move by the team if you ask me, because one or two games in the regular season could mean they don't get to October, so resting him could be a moot point.
But, this team still has a very strong rotation and bullpen from last year, Carl Crawford is poised for a big bounce-back year, and the rest of the team is young and improving. What's not to like?
4. Baltimore (75-87)- The rest of this division will suffer the consequences. The Orioles have some nice young pieces though, such as Adam Jones in center field. He's going to be a stud. The pitching staff has decent promise too, so I pick them barely ahead of the Jays.
5. Toronto (72-90)- I don't know why I'm quite so down on this team, but after Roy Halladay, I don't like much of what they have. Vernon Wells is getting old. Alex Rios is good, and Scott Rolen should do better than last year if he's healthier for once. But not much else.
I will be watching New Britain native Jesse Carlson closely as a reliever. His father is a great person and he's done well in his time so far.
American League Central
1. Minnesota (89-73)- Love the former Rock Cats in the rotation. And in a division with no great teams, consistency wins out. Nobody's staff is as balanced as the Twins, even if Scott Baker misses a bit of time at the start. But Denard Span needs to do better than he did in the spring and Mauer must get back healthy before too long. That could be a downfall.
2. Cleveland (85-77)- I could get laughed at for this, but I think this is a sleeper team. Here's why.
There's a lot of potential for surprise performances from the pitching staff. Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona need to perform up to expectations. Jake Westbrook needs to return from Tommy John surgery healthy and before July. But there's hope behind that. I expect big things from Carl Pavano, getting out of New York, and Anthony Reyes, who has as much talent as anybody when he screws his head on correctly.
Plus, I like Victor Martinez to bounce back, Sizemore to improve and others to do well. I like this team. I could eat these words in September.
3. Chicago (82-78)- An up and down club headed for another "down" year. Good pieces. Alexei Ramirez is a rising star. But I expect dropoffs from Carlos Quentin, Jermaine Dye and the rotation.
4. Kansas City (78-82)- Much improved, but don't buy the hype that this team could contend in this division. The young pitching staff is solid, but the offense has no big bats to get the job done. Simply put, who's driving in the runs? Alex Gordon's not that good yet, and Coco Crisp is no savior.
5. Detroit (72-90)- Bad times ahead for the Motor City. This pitching staff, injured and declining in a hurry, is bad. The offense is weaker without Sheff and Pudge. Granderson, Magglio and Cabrera can't score enough to overcome the deficiencies. Horrible year.
American League West
1. Anaheim of LA in the Valley [or something like that] (90-72)- Smoke and mirrors, and good coaching, are enough to win this division. This isn't nearly as good a team as it used to be, and there are some early pitching questions. But in the end, who's beating them. Nobody else is very good. And Scioscia is one of the best in the game at getting the most out of a roster.
2. Oakland (84-78)- Still don't think this team is very good. This might even be a bit high for them. Holliday's numbers should plummet in the Coliseum. The pitching staff is mediocre. The rest of the lineup strikes out too much. But look for the return of Giambi, back to folk legend status by the Bay. He was never comfortable in New York.
3. Seattle (83-79)- The Mariners weren't a good team last year, but they weren't as bad as their record. Or at least shouldn't have been. Look for Bedard to do better this year, and the team to get a serious emotional boost from that Griffey guy. Some guys are just meant to be in certain cities. Junior never should have left. He belongs to Seattle.
4. Texas (80-82)- Teams still getting better, but there still isn't enough pitching to go with stud hitters like Kinsler and Hamilton.
National League East
1. New York (91-71)- I know the rotation depth is weak. I know you're counting a lot on John Maine and Oliver Perez to do well. But I believe in both of those guys and the Mets have found success at the front of games with mediocre talent in recent years. It's been the back end that's caused problems. Now they've got that settled with two top level guys in Putz and K-Rod.
Now, the runs that this lineup scores will hold up, and with Sheff added yesterday, the lineup looks even a bit stronger.
2. Philadelphia (89-73)- Here's where I see pitching problems. Hamels is hurt. Moyer is a human wonder, but can't do everything. Myers is never happy. What else is there. I saw Happ in person last year. He's not that good.
Great bullpen, great offense (even better with Utley back at full strength). But pitching will be the downfall for the champs.
3. Florida (86-76)- This is another sleeper team. Most in the division consider the Marlins rotation to be the best of the bunch, though almost completely unknown. Chris Volstad is the next guy to get recognized, the way Hamels has over the past three years. Hanley Ramirez is a star.
But overall, not enough depth in the lineup.
4. Atlanta (83-79)- This team could also sneak into the playoffs, if Francouer bounces back, Chipper stays healthy and other things go right. The rotation will have trouble staying healthy, even if it is good when the guys take the mound. So that will keep them back just a bit.
5. Washington (71-91)- You know, I think this team is much improved talent-wise. But the record won't get much of a boost playing four legitimately good teams in the division. Love Elijah Dukes. Love Dunn to get the fans excited. Don't expect to be in the race.
National League Central
1. Chicago (96-66)- Best team in the NL is back. They choked in the playoffs, but they're built for regular season greatness. Zambrano, Harden, Dempster (and Peavy?). That's tough to beat. The lineup is balanced and better with Milton Bradley. Let's see how they do when they get to the playoffs this time.
Only minor question for me is will Gregg and Marmol be as strong as Wood was last year. That could effect things.
2. St. Louis (93-69)- Homer pick. But seriously, I love my team this year.
STAT TIME!
Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright combined for 23 starts last year, going 11-4 (Carp was 0-1 and never got past the fifth inning). That team won 86 games.
Now those two are back healthy and should start, at a very conservative guess, 40 games at least. Thats good for five more wins. Add in an offensive upgrade at short, a plethora of outfield talent and a bullpen that will now be an asset as opposed to a detriment. Josh Kinney will be a great reliever, Ryan Franklin will be at home in the setup role and Jason Motte will close games out with pure power. Mark it down. This team makes the playoffs barring injuries.
3. Cincinnati (86-76)- Everybody's favorite to be this year's Rays looks good on paper. Volquez, Cueto, Harang, Arroyo and Owings in the rotation: good stuff. But...
After Joey Votto (who I love), Jay Bruce (who I like) and Brandon Phillips (who everybody should know more about) the offense is full of unproductive outs and little power. This offense can't score enough to take pressure off the young arms. That's a recipe for disaster.
4. Milwaukee (81-81)- Braun is awesome, and I hate him for that. Fielder is dangerous. Other guys can hit for power, though not as much for average.
But the team's best pitcher might be Jeff Suppan, three of the other starters are constantly hurt, and Braden Looper is a solid pitcher. That's not a lot of depth, and no ace. Remember, before CC got there last year, this team was not headed to the playoffs. He won't save them this year, and Sheets is gone, too.
5. Houston (74-88)- This is a team where the sum of the parts is greater than the whole. Somehow these guys won't blend. Good pitching performances will go wasted. Good offensive days will be ruined by poor starts. And Carlos Lee is so bad in left field it's worth about 20 runs over the course of the season to opponents. I like what they did adding Pudge, and Berkman's still the quietest great player in the game. But this team is destined to hit the skids.
6. Pittsburgh (66-96)- In contention to be the worst team in the league, if only San Diego weren't so bad it would be a landslide. They have a rotation of guys who could never live up to potential. Maholm, their best chance to break that chance, is pitching poorly in spring.
The offense is hideous and the defense even worse. Beautiful park. Ugly team.
National League West
1. Los Angeles (88-74)- I don't love any of these teams, and I've flip-flopped on this several times (like the AL East). But Manny is a difference maker and makes that offense the best in the division (not that that says much).
I don't like the pitching staff. There's too much riding on young guys, and guys who may have had career years last year. We'll see. This team still has the most upside in the division.
2. San Francisco (86-76)- Combine the Giants and Dodgers and you'd have a great team. Cause Lincecum, Cain and Randy Johnson is a fearsome top three in the rotation. But who will score the runs. The offense is better, but still bad. Nonetheless, I think this team fits its park very well and will post a very good home record.
3. Arizona (85-77)- This could change if a lot of the young hitters step up. Webb and Haren are still great, but the rest of the rotation isn't as good as before. But if Stephen Drew and whichever Upton is on this team reach their potential, that could go a long way. Plus I expect good things from Felipe Lopez at second, and Eric Byrnes could see a big bounceback year, if he ever gets to play.
4. Colorado (74-88)- Who's still on this team from the 07 World Series? Spillborghs. Tulowitzki. Ummmm???
Alright, Todd Helton's still there, but far too much of the team salary is tied up in an aging hitter with bad home and road splits. Pitching staff is suspect. Offense has noticeably less pop without Holliday.
5. San Diego (65-97)- Bad, bad, bad, bad, bad. Look out 62 Mets. This team might challenge you, although that has proven harder and harder to do. Even the awful teams get some wins these days, and Jake Peavy's still a Padre for at least a couple months. Chris Young could bounce back and be a very good pitcher. And Brian Giles is... well, he's still there for what it's worth. (Adrian Gonzalez is one good offensive player this team has. He's about it.)
The offense is god awful. It's a shame that the owners' personal issues (divorce) are forcing the fans and team to suffer. Hang in there Pads fans.
Enjoy the season, fans. I know I will.
And stay classy, San Diego. It's going to be a loooooooong season.
Labels: baseball, MLB